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With a conservative U.S. Supreme Court widely expected to overturn race-conscious admissions in higher education, attention in the education community has already shifted to what happens next.  

One likely effect is obvious. 鈥淭here is going to be some closing of doors,鈥� said Halley Potter, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation, a progressive think tank. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a landscape in which it鈥檚 harder to secure access in most competitive schools.鈥� 

But further down the line, a ruling against schools that factor race in admissions could affect a host of other academic mainstays, from scholarships to the centrality of tests like the SAT and ACT.

The ruling might not end diversity efforts outright. Granting preferential admission to low-income students, children of single parents or those from communities where students often don鈥檛 go to college could achieve similar results, experts say, without courting legal trouble. 

鈥� don鈥檛 want race used in admissions, but Americans do want selective institutions to be racially diverse,鈥� said Richard Kahlenberg, a non-resident scholar at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy, and an expert on integration. He thinks the court鈥檚 decision could reflect that paradox. 鈥淭hey don’t want to be seen as simply dismissive of the aspiration of racial diversity.鈥�

The court is expected to issue decisions in two lawsuits 鈥� brought by Students for Fair Admissions against Harvard University and the University of North Carolina 鈥� later this month. The plaintiff in both cases argues that the weight universities place on race in admissions violates anti-discrimination laws and puts Asian American students at a disadvantage. 

鈥楴ext generation鈥�

While the cases don鈥檛 deal directly with K-12 schools, the high court鈥檚 decision could elevate the importance of a recent lower court ruling rejecting a legal challenge to diversity efforts at an elite Virginia high school. Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology in Alexandria, Va., removed a rigorous admissions test and a $100 application fee, and reserved seats at the school for the top 1.5% of 8th graders in each middle school. Coalition for TJ, the plaintiff in the case, called the revised admissions criteria discriminatory against Asian American students. 

The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals rejected that view. 鈥淭he policy challenged here is not just race-neutral: It is race blind,鈥� Fourth Circuit of Appeals Judge Toby Heytens wrote in the

The conservative Pacific Legal Foundation, which represents the plaintiffs, said board members鈥� desire to increase the number of Black and Hispanic students at the school motivated the new policy. They plan to ask the Supreme Court to hear the lawsuit. 

Kahlenberg, who testified on behalf of Students for Fair Admissions about race-neutral alternatives, called the TJ case a 鈥渘ext generation issue.鈥�

If the Supreme Court rules that universities can no longer ask applicants to identify their race, they might see the Fairfax case as a chance to 鈥渟pell out in further detail the line between what is acceptable and unacceptable,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 think the answer will be that the TJ program is perfectly fine.鈥� 

鈥楩ormative experiences鈥�

The college admissions industry, meanwhile, has been preparing for the end of affirmative action for months. Beginning in August, for example, colleges can hide a student鈥檚 race if it鈥檚 included in the , a uniform application for undergraduate admissions accepted at more than 1,000 colleges and universities nationwide.  

The American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Counselors earlier this year to review all of their policies and practices related to diversity, equity, and inclusion and to examine any area, such as mission statements and recruitment efforts, where race is a factor 鈥� 鈥渘o matter how minor鈥� 鈥� to determine if changes are needed.

Organizations that focus on high school graduation and college enrollment say they plan to continue to identify students who would be the first in their families to attend college, regardless of race. 

鈥淚n some ways for us, it will be business as usual 鈥� to serve underserved students. That鈥檚 been really the heart of our work long before this became a hot-button issue,鈥� said Pam Johnson Davis, director of fellow support for OneGoal, a nonprofit that works in eight states to increase graduation and college enrollment rates. Eighty-six percent of the students served by the organization are Black or Hispanic. She supports 400 鈥渇ellows鈥� in the Chicago area who are already in college or another postsecondary program.

If students are barred from bringing up their race even in their admissions essays 鈥� a hypothetical scenario that came up during Supreme Court 鈥� teachers at OneGoal schools would still encourage students to write about barriers they overcame to pursue education, Davis said.

Facing discrimination, raising younger siblings, translating for parents who don鈥檛 speak English 鈥� 鈥渢hese are really formative experiences in students鈥� lives,鈥� she said. 鈥淭heir stories will be shaped by their cultural and socioeconomic backgrounds.鈥�

Stephen Barker, a spokesman for the organization, added that opportunities for Black and Hispanic high school students to earn college credit could become more important for colleges and universities if the court strikes down affirmative action in admissions. 

鈥淚nstitutions need to double down on those partnerships [with districts] if they want to keep that diversity going in a race-neutral way,鈥� he said.

But he said it鈥檚 hard to predict what importance universities might place on other aspects of a student鈥檚 application, including GPAs, honors classes, and SAT and Advanced Placement exam scores if race no longer factors into the equation.

The potential end of affirmative action in admissions a growing movement away from requiring the SAT or ACT for admission, with some researchers and advocates for educational equity arguing the tests are biased against Black and Hispanic students and . According to FairTest, an advocacy group, are now test-optional or don鈥檛 even accept the exams.

But others say that criticism of the tests is misguided and that they still serve as a good predictor of how well students will perform in college. Adam Tyner, national research director at the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, a conservative think tank, said are 鈥渄eeply vetted鈥� to remove content that might disadvantage minority students. GPAs, he added, are less controversial, but large remain.

He doesn鈥檛 think the test-optional trend is only about removing barriers for Black and Hispanic applicants. Admissions officers may have other motivations, he said.

鈥淓ither [universities]think that the exams aren’t so important or 鈥� they, for financial reasons, desire an excuse for admitting more affluent students with less academic preparation,鈥� he said.

With or without admissions exams, the end of race-conscious admissions would put more pressure on K-12 counselors serving Black and Hispanic students, Kahlenberg said.

鈥淔or years, the [private] prep school kids have had the upper hand. There are fewer students per counselor and they can put time into writing impressive letters [of recommendation],鈥� he said. 鈥淗ere鈥檚 an opportunity for public school counselors to paint a picture of students who have done remarkably well despite the barriers.鈥�

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