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The gap between workforce policy ambition and the infrastructure that鈥檚 needed to make it a reality is a defining story in American workforce policy. Ohio is an example of this problem and the pathway to solving it.  

Last year, about 9,000 Ohio high school students earned a retail sales and customer service credential. State records show employers were looking to fill exactly three jobs statewide that required it. Another 4,000 students earned a stack of emergency management credentials for a field with fewer than 300 openings.

These students didn鈥檛 do anything wrong. The problem belonged to a state that built an enormous credentialing system far before it had the tools and data infrastructure to know which credentials were worth earning.

Since 2019, Ohio has allowed high school students to earn a diploma by completing career and technical education coursework and receiving an industry-recognized credential rather than passing a state test. Students responded rationally, with credential attainment rising from 53,000 in 2019 to 170,000 in 2024.

On paper, that鈥檚 a career readiness success story. But beneath the topline number is anarchy. Some credentials, like welding certifications, open doors. Others, earned in a few hours, mainly satisfy a graduation requirement rather than signal a marketable skill.

The value of these credentials differs greatly by field, according to an by The Ohio State University Workforce Development and Education program. For example, credentials tied to transportation, manufacturing and construction produced wage gains lasting into people’s mid-20s. Nurse’s aide or culinary arts training showed no meaningful income advantage.

The mismatch is not unique to Ohio. from ExcelinEd and Burning Glass Technologies found that roughly two-thirds of states collect the data needed to know whether their credentials align with employer demand. That same analysis found that just 18% of the credentials students earn nationally are actually sought by employers.

To its credit, Ohio spent the past year building the infrastructure it should have had from the start. ExcelinEd’s Adrianna Harrington calls this story a 鈥�cautionary tale,鈥� noting that Ohio鈥檚 approved list had over 700 credentials. Working with , a nonprofit formed by the state’s major chambers of commerce, the state cut its approved list to 126. It also built a framework for screening credentials on job placement, pay, field growth and whether the coursework also counts toward a degree.

Emily Passias, deputy executive director of Advance CTE, who helped build Ohio’s original list, said states have mostly been identifying credentials “based on vibes,” letting them pile up. What Ohio is attempting, she said, is to right the ship.

The state also created an online high school outcomes . It tracks what students do after they graduate, including employment, college enrollment and completion, and earnings data from the Ohio Unemployment Insurance program. It includes specific information on for those who leave high school with a CTE or at least two approved workforce development courses in a single CTE career pathway program.    

Other states are undertaking similar , though with some differences. For example, Michigan and New Hampshire use earnings data from an outside source called the , created by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 

An Advance CTE 2024 50-state reports that 27 states have processes for reviewing approved credentials on a regular schedule to ensure they are still meeting program goals, though only 14 incorporate wage information in that process. The report concludes, 鈥渢oo many states lack robust systems, policies and data to ensure true quality and value.鈥�

Ohio鈥檚 credential anarchy isn鈥檛 only a K-12 education story. The same problem is showing up in the new federal Workforce Pell program that started July 1 and extends Pell Grant eligibility to short-term career training programs.

A month after launched its Workforce Pell initiative, the state hadn鈥檛 approved a single program. Nine applications were submitted, six were marked incomplete and three were rejected. According to , the Ohio Department of Higher Education says postsecondary institutions are still determining 鈥渢heir internal capacity to administer鈥� the program.

Governors and legislators working on credentialing and Workforce Pell implementation should recognize this as a problem similar to the one Ohio just fixed in its high schools. It involves building the data infrastructure to know which credentials are actually worth earning before students pay for them, not after.  

Here are five lessons states can learn from Ohio鈥檚 experience. 

鈥� 聽 聽 Don鈥檛 wait to build the data infrastructure for determining credential value. Ohio’s dashboards arrived after more than 170,000 students had earned credentials. The fix came years behind the boom it was meant to steer. Ohio’s own approved credential list didn’t get pruned until state numbers turned embarrassing enough to force the issue.

鈥� 聽 聽 Count credentials as career-ready only when paired with real coursework, not as standalone certificates. The Ohio State shows what that pairing is worth: Students who combined a credential with a CTE concentration saw a 41% income premium in their first year out of high school. That鈥檚 more than double the standalone credential bump. The advantage held up seven years later, long after the credential-only advantage had faded.

鈥� 聽 聽 Anchor wage thresholds to independent, regional sources. A single statewide wage-earning calculation doesn’t take into account real differences in the cost of living and labor demand. A wage that counts as solid in Youngstown, Ohio, can be modest in Columbus. That鈥檚 why a regional or independently calculated threshold is better than a single figure an agency sets for the whole state.

鈥� 聽 聽 Build a scheduled revalidation process into policy from the start. This will ensure that lists shrink as often as they grow. Removing a credential creates political friction that adding one rarely does. That鈥檚 why states need to implement a regular review schedule rather than waiting for an embarrassing statistic to force a review.

鈥� 聽 聽 The problem applies well beyond Ohio’s K-12 credentials. Community college certificates, apprenticeships and now Workforce Pell-funded training programs all rest on the same premise: that a short-term credential can be trusted to signal real value in the job market. Without the data infrastructure to check that, states can’t actually tell which credentials keep that promise and which don’t. Students are left to guess 鈥� navigating a maze instead of following a map.

Ohio, like many states, let its credential system grow before building the infrastructure needed to govern it. Every state weighing a new credentialing incentive, and every K-12 school, college or training provider chasing it, faces the same choice. They must create that infrastructure first, updating it as needed, or spend years finding out why they should have.

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