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With no end in sight to the Trump administration鈥檚 campaign to curb illegal immigration, emerging evidence shows that the policy is causing school attendance to fall significantly for the students most exposed to its effects. 

A circulated by researchers at Brown University revealed that, following a spate of immigration raids and arrests that began with Trump鈥檚 inauguration in January 2025, absences among foreign-born students in one northeastern school district rose by almost 40 percent. Notably, the trend took the form of a lasting negative impact in day-to-day attendance rather than a temporary drop in the wake of particular enforcement actions. 

Andrew Camp, a research associate at Brown鈥檚 Annenberg Institute and the paper鈥檚 lead author, said he was surprised to discover that the consequences of political change were so durable, extending through the end of the 2024鈥�25 academic year. The lingering increase in absenteeism would likely require more work from educators and administrators to draw children back to schools, he added.

鈥淚f this just happens the day after an event, you might say, ‘Well, there’s nothing we can do, and throw up your hands,’鈥� Camp said. 鈥淏ut if it happens even when there’s nothing going on in the community, that indicates that it might be a more persistent problem that requires a more considered outreach effort.”

The results dovetail with those of other recent research, each pointing to clear and immediate downward pressure on attendance resulting from in immigration enforcement. That push has seen personnel from U.S. Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement school buildings, though they have detained family members .

A study released last summer pointed to similar developments in California鈥檚 Central Valley, over the past year. The author, Stanford University economist Thomas Dee, said the observations of the Brown team support his own findings and underscore 鈥渢he serious academic harm that ongoing immigration raids inflict on students and schools.鈥�

鈥淥bviously, increased absenteeism implies lost learning time,鈥� Dee wrote in an email. 鈥淗owever, I also view the impact of immigration raids on student attendance as a leading indicator for other downstream effects, such as lost learning and stress-induced mental-health challenges.鈥�

The mid-sized urban setting examined in Camp鈥檚 work (pseudonymized as 鈥淟iberty City鈥� to preserve the privacy of residents and district employees) differs from the agricultural region Dee focused on, but mirrors some of its demographic features. Approximately 40 percent of the community鈥檚 population was born outside the United States, and roughly two-thirds identify as Hispanic or Latino.

The authors employed an unusual strategy to conduct their study, collaborating closely with both the Liberty City school system and a local immigrant advocacy organization. From the former, they received information on thousands of students鈥� birthplaces that was originally collected when they enrolled in school; from the latter, a detailed log of immigration enforcement actions, including arrests, recorded in the community beginning last January.

Camp argued that using countries of origin to track students potentially targeted by immigration sweeps was less 鈥渂lunt鈥� than other methods. Some foreign-born pupils may not perceive much risk from increased enforcement activity, he acknowledged, either because they live in the U.S. legally or they feel their families are likely to evade the scrutiny of federal authorities. But alternative proxies for immigration status, such as English Learner status, are themselves imperfect measures of vulnerability 鈥� earlier research has repeatedly shown that of English Learners around the country are U.S. citizens.

Comparing attendance figures from 2024鈥�25 to the same numbers from the previous school year, Camp and his colleagues found that Liberty City students born outside the U.S. became much more likely to miss school once President Trump took office. While foreign-born students were, somewhat surprisingly, slightly more likely to be marked 鈥減resent鈥� than their U.S.-born classmates in 2023鈥�24, that gap disappears from the data the next year. In total, foreign-born students鈥� likelihood of being absent on any given school day rose by over one-third, from 5.9 percent to 8.1 percent.

Two further nuances stood out from the overall picture. First, attendance declined to a considerably lesser extent among the youngest learners: The effects on children enrolled in pre-kindergarten and elementary school largely fell below the benchmark of statistical significance, but the absence rate of high school juniors jumped by six points on average. The contrast indicates that older, more independent students may have started skipping school on their own initiative, even as parents largely continued dropping their kids off.

Additionally, the team observed that the attendance phenomenon was not primarily driven by 鈥渁cute鈥� reactions to enforcement actions like raids. Absences ticked upward by only 0.6 percentage points on days when such events took place within Liberty City, and they were not significantly higher the next day. In other words, the baseline level of school attendance was consistently lower throughout the winter and spring, not just when fears of imminent actions were triggered.

What鈥檚 more, the 37 percent boost to absences was seen in a jurisdiction that is broadly welcoming to immigrant families. Liberty City officials convened public meetings to allay residents鈥� fears after Trump was reelected in November 2024, and the district does not share information on students鈥� immigration status with ICE. That implies that attendance could deteriorate further in less supportive environments.

鈥淎s these events are ongoing, the district is being so active about calling home and communicating, ‘We know there’s been an arrest in the community, but it’s not a raid, and they’re not going after you or your kids,’鈥� Camp said. 鈥淪o if anything, I would guess these effects are a bit of an understatement of effects that we might see in Nebraska or Arkansas.”

Viri Carrizales, founder and CEO of the advocacy group ImmSchools, remarked the paper鈥檚 findings are in line with what she has heard from districts and charter networks, some of which have reported attendance drops of 20 percent. To reverse the damage, she said in an email, school leaders needed to establish 鈥減rotocols and policies that clearly protect students鈥� constitutional rights.鈥�

鈥淧rotecting access to education is not optional; it is a legal and moral responsibility that schools must uphold for every child,鈥� Carrizales wrote. 鈥淎 school can no longer be a school when its classrooms are filled with empty seats.鈥�

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