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Most school district leaders know their finances are in serious trouble. Most of them are not saying so publicly. That combination 鈥� private alarm, public reassurance 鈥� is itself a major part of the problem.

Early this month, The Center for Reinventing Public Education convened a group of current and former superintendents and experts to help shape questions for a national survey on how district leaders are coping with the financial pressures created by declining enrollment and federal funding cuts. The survey results will come out this fall, but our informants flagged several important considerations that district and state leaders need to grapple with right now, before the next budget cycle, before the next round of collective bargaining.

The financial challenges districts face today are just the beginning. In many districts, the kindergarten and first-grade classes coming through the door are smaller than the ones before. Low birth rates, sharp reductions in immigration, continued family migration away from cities and growing enrollment in charter and private schools of choice are all pushing in the same direction. District leaders who believe they are managing a temporary dip are likely wrong. This is a long-term shift, and the numbers will keep declining as long as newer classes of students are smaller than those they succeed. 

District costs keep rising, so doing nothing is not an option. Even a district that adds no new programs, hires no new staff and signs no new contracts will see its costs rise. Teacher step increases escalate pay automatically without any new collective bargaining agreement. Benefits and energy costs track inflation. Deferred maintenance on buildings and equipment eventually becomes unavoidable. A district can do everything to keep costs steady and still watch its budget deteriorate year by year. As one superintendent put it during our discussion: 鈥淵ou start with the painless solutions… And after a year or two鈥�now you’re into painful cuts.鈥澛�

Parents and voters don’t know how bad it is, and district leaders are keeping them in the dark. The gap between public perception and fiscal reality is wide and growing. Superintendents habitually project confidence and avoid talking through budgetary tradeoffs and hard decisions; explaining what things actually cost often creates confusion, anger and confrontation. Newer leaders often lack the background to understand and explain the complexities of their districts鈥� financial crises. As a result, most people hold significant misconceptions about basic facts, from the real cost of special education services to what teachers take home in pay; they attribute budget shortfalls to mismanagement. As one advisor told us: 鈥淔amilies don’t know this stuff is going on鈥� but they know that their kids are not where they need to be.鈥澛�

This lack of understanding undermines public support when it鈥檚 needed most. Local groups 鈥� including teacher unions, parents protecting schools and programs, social service advocates and others 鈥� fear losing resources they rely on. Since they don鈥檛 have the full picture, they naturally assume that districts can make ends meet if they tighten belts. At a time when teachers and families are facing rising costs in their private lives, many people think of taxpayer-funded schools as flush with resources and able to fill gaps. The lack of clarity from the districts guarantees pushback, and the result is political gridlock, not thoughtful fiscal strategy. This is where many districts across the country are stuck right now.聽

States are not coming to the rescue. Federal cuts to domestic programs under the Trump Administration are setting off intense competition for state dollars. Schools will not be alone in that fight. Healthcare, transportation, housing and other civic necessities will be pressing state legislatures at the same time. The idea that states will ride to the rescue of districts facing structural deficits is not realistic in this environment. And it is disingenuous for district leaders to suggest this is a solution.

Our advisors were honest that they do not have a full set of answers. But they were clear that superintendents cannot afford to wait for the survey results, or for clearer signals from Washington or for the next school board election. CRPE has been studying and the for more than 30 years, and we have seen what works 鈥� and what doesn鈥檛 鈥� for struggling districts. Here are some ways districts can act now to start telling the truth and prepare for what鈥檚 to come. 

First, calculate and forecast honest numbers. Not optimistic enrollment projections or revenue figures that assume federal dollars that may not arrive. Real numbers, with real ranges of uncertainty, shared internally first and then publicly with enough context so people understand how the situation got so bad, and what鈥檚 at stake. 

Then, go public with what you know and ask for help. Community members cannot engage in a meaningful way if they don’t understand the situation. The instinct to project confidence by withholding bad news almost always backfires, and it precludes the public conversation that might actually generate support for difficult decisions. Asking for help will generate new ideas and also build trust.

That means no longer pretending that extreme measures are off the table. If teacher layoffs and school closures are genuinely avoidable right now, say so, but don鈥檛 rule anything out entirely. Setting clear and realistic expectations will build trust and credibility that can help if the situation worsens. 

And it requires building real relationships with state officials and legislators, not just formal contacts. District leaders who have honest, ongoing conversations with their state counterparts will be better positioned to make their case when state budgets are being divided up. For their part, state education associations should be ready to step in with more accurate forecasts, financial expertise and support to superintendents and school boards stuck in gridlock.

Telling the truth isn鈥檛 a complete solution for climbing out of budget crises that are years in the making, but it is a starting point for thousands of local efforts to preserve children’s opportunities under conditions that our institutions were never designed to handle. 

The survey we are fielding this fall may reveal examples of districts that have found better answers. We hope it will. But the place to start is not with waiting for more data. Instead, leaders who have a stake in their public schools must gear up for tough conversations and tell the truth about where things stand.

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