They included ninth graders who didn鈥檛 earn any credits in their first semester and those who should have been in 10th grade, but were out of school for a year.

鈥淵ou don鈥檛 normally refer younger kids to dropout recovery,鈥� Franco said. 鈥淪ome of them are like, 鈥榃hat鈥檚 a credit?鈥欌�� 

Those students who were held back are among the reasons Texas saw a 9% increase in its freshman class this year, more than four times the state鈥檚 annual growth rate prior to the pandemic. 

That pattern has been demonstrated in more than a dozen states, according to enrollment data compiled by Burbio, an information services company, and shared exclusively with 社区黑料.

The new data, from 35 states and the District of Columbia, adds to the complicated picture of students鈥� comings and goings during the COVID era. With many young children who delayed pre-K and kindergarten during school closures now flooding back into the education system, an enrollment surge in the early grades was expected. But 15 states and D.C. saw growth in ninth grade of at least 5% compared to 2020-21, and in a few states, including New Mexico and North Carolina, the increase in freshmen far outpaced that of kindergartners. 

While the return of families to public schools contributed to growth in ninth grade this year, retention rates have nearly doubled in some states and districts, and educators don鈥檛 expect next year to be much better. 

鈥淲e鈥檙e a generation that鈥檚 going to have people with two-year holes in their education,鈥� said Jeffrey Cole, principal at Winston County High, a rural Alabama school about midway between Huntsville and Birmingham.

If freshmen only fail two quarters, Cole usually moves them on to 10th grade. But for the first time in his 19 years as principal, he has students failing all four quarters. He thinks they should have stayed in eighth grade. Across the state, enrollment in ninth grade has jumped at a much higher rate than before the pandemic.

Districts often see a 鈥渂ulge鈥� in freshman year when students don鈥檛 pass enough classes to move on, said Eric Wearne, director of the Education Economics Center at Kennesaw State University, outside Atlanta. But he added it鈥檚 not a surprise COVID disruptions and remote learning made matters much worse.

鈥淪tudents were in ninth grade,鈥� he said, 鈥渁nd the COVID situation was so tough that more of them than usual didn’t earn enough credits to be considered 10^th graders yet.”

Retention data in some states and districts back that up. Figures from last fall show that 18% of ninth graders in the Houston Independent School District repeated the year, significantly higher than the district鈥檚 pre-pandemic rate of 10%. And in North Carolina, more than 16% of last year鈥檚 freshman class was retained 鈥� roughly double the rate of past years. District officials from rural Maryland to Albuquerque, New Mexico, also saw higher retention rates this year.

The majority of states where ninth grade enrollment surpassed 5% are concentrated in the South, where they have 鈥渨ell-defined promotion criteria鈥� for freshmen, such as end-of-course exams, explained Robert Balfanz, who directs the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University. Such policies were widely implemented in the early 2000s at the start of the accountability-driven No Child Left Behind era, but have since been suspended in many states.

What hasn鈥檛 changed, he said, is that students still need to earn enough credits to graduate.

鈥淚t鈥檚 the long tail of the pandemic,鈥� he said. 鈥淭his will impact graduation rates three years from now.”

He added that during remote learning, high school students were more likely to have assignments without live instruction and had to 鈥渟elf-manage getting the work done.鈥� With many high schools canceling orientation in the fall of 2020, he said rising ninth graders might not have fully understood the consequences of failing a class.

鈥楩ell off the radar鈥�

The retention increase is one example of how the pandemic has altered existing patterns that enrollment forecasters use to help districts plan for the future. In his work with school districts, Jerry Oelerich, a senior analyst at the consulting company Flo-Analytics, accounts for the fact that 2007 鈥� when most of this year鈥檚 ninth graders were born 鈥� was a for births. That alone, however, doesn鈥檛 fully explain the big increases some states are seeing in ninth grade, Oelerich said. 

Private school enrollment and also grew last year. But students often return to traditional high schools to play sports. And many parents decide they鈥檙e not cut out to teach high schoolers. 

鈥淭heir expertise kind of runs out,鈥� said Kent Martin, a senior analyst at Flo-Analytics and a former teacher and administrator in Washington state. 鈥淵ou really need to be a content expert, like a teacher.鈥�

Ronn Nozoe, CEO at the National Association of Secondary School Principals, said it makes sense that with schools predominantly open this year, families who opted for private schools would return and 鈥渟ave their money.鈥�

鈥淭here are a lot of kids who fell off the radar,鈥� Nozoe said. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e going to move back in, you want to start that in ninth 鈥� not 10th, 11th or 12th.鈥�

That鈥檚 what Virginia mother Kate O鈥橦arra decided after she pulled her son Jack Mulhall out of the Loudoun County district last year and enrolled him in Stride (formerly K12), a national network of virtual schools, for eighth grade. 

鈥淗e didn鈥檛 do terrible,鈥� even though O鈥橦arra, a pilates instructor, and her husband, an IT professional, weren鈥檛 always available to help him with schoolwork. When schools closed, Jack was on his way to overcoming some of the scatteredness that comes with his ADHD. But the district’s remote learning program, which O’Harra described as “a complete and utter failure,” interrupted that progress.

鈥淲e were in a good place pre-COVID. Now it鈥檚 all over the map.鈥�

The affluent suburb has been at the center of several over the rights of transgender students and the use of so-called 鈥渃ritical race theory.鈥� But Jack鈥檚 desire to return to school with his friends and her wish for a normal school structure convinced O鈥橦arra to return to the district for ninth grade.

Still, the move hasn鈥檛 solved everything for Jack, now at Woodgrove High School. 

鈥淲e went into 9^th grade very unprepared,鈥� said his mother, adding that after a year of remote learning, he struggles with some social cues, like not knowing how to take a joke. 

Jack said his only contact with friends during eighth grade was playing 鈥淐all of Duty,鈥� and the one person he met virtually through Stride was his math teacher. He鈥檚 still missing some organizational skills and fell behind in Spanish and earth science. He鈥檒l start next year with a tutor.

鈥淚 didn鈥檛 really have assignments for science [in eighth grade]. I was left drifting without any knowledge,鈥� he said. But back in a traditional school, Jack plays football and lacrosse and said, 鈥淚 can actually see and talk to my teachers in real life.鈥� 

Nationwide in Stride dropped slightly this year 鈥� down to 187,000 from 189,400 last year, but still well above the pre-pandemic figure of about 123,000. 

Virtual programs are another reason some district鈥檚 ninth grade classes are swelling. The Mecklenburg County Public Schools in Virginia, a rural district not far from the North Carolina state line, offered a virtual option through Stride so parents still concerned about COVID wouldn鈥檛 withdraw their children to homeschool and the district wouldn鈥檛 lose funding. 

The virtual program boosted ninth grade enrollment from 337 in 2020-21 to 609 this year. But Superintendent Paul Nichols has regrets and suggested that remote instruction shares some of the blame for students veering off track.

鈥淲e will offer no virtual education options for students next year,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e are concerned that most of them have not completed much, if any, actual academic work.鈥�