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The percentage of  3- and 4-year-olds enrolled in school dropped during the most recently available five-year lookback window of federal data, though that picture is likely clouded by COVID-era school closures. 

The decline was cited in the an annual report released by The Annie E. Casey Foundation, which uses federal data sets to measure national childhood well-being across more than a dozen indicators.聽The most recent report finds that only 46% of 3- and 4-year-olds were enrolled in preschool between 2020-24, a 2 percentage-point drop since the years between 2015 and 2019.聽

For the past decade, the figure has hovered within this same range, and experts warned that any five-year estimates that include data from the pandemic should be examined with caution, as extended school closures likely mask long-term trends. 

Still, the numbers come as states across the country have worked to expand access to early learning, so even a flatline has set off alarm bells for those on the ground 鈥� especially in areas that saw even greater declines.

Janice Barlow is the director of Kids Count in Delaware, which saw the second-largest drop in early learning enrollment nationally during this window, from 51% to 45%. Barlow said that while it鈥檚 possible these numbers partially reflect pandemic closures, 鈥渙ur score is low enough that we know that we need investment in our early care and education system.鈥�

Barlow said at least in part, Delaware鈥檚 drop is due to the climbing costs of early childcare which 鈥渋s rivaling the cost of other basic needs, things like housing, transportation, health care, food.鈥� 

And, across the state, she added, 鈥淲e don鈥檛 have enough care for the kids who need to be served,鈥� which has led some parents to reduce hours at work, change jobs or drop out of the workforce altogether. 

In all, the Kids Count Data Book uses a number of federal data sets to measure 16 indicators over four areas: economic well-being; education; health and family; and community. The Casey Foundation, a private philanthropy group founded in 1948 to improve economic opportunity for children, then uses these indicators to score states out of 1,000 and rank their performance.聽

Consistent with their last two data books, the greatest setbacks nationally were within education, where three of four indicators saw declines: preschool attendance and both math and reading proficiency. The only education measure that saw slight improvement was the four-year high school graduation rate, which improved by 1 percentage point between 2019 and 2024, up to 87%. 

Nearly all states (47) had worse education indicators in 2024 than in 2019, according to the report. Overall, New Jersey and Massachusetts scored the best in education, and only two states 鈥� Mississippi and Louisiana 鈥� saw significant improvements since 2019.

The report’s authors relied on data from the U.S. Census Bureau鈥檚 American Community Survey to measure the percentage of 3- and 4-year-olds enrolled in school. A kid is counted as enrolled if they attend nursery school, preschool or kindergarten, including those sponsored by federal, state or local agencies, such as Head Start.

The American Community Survey disseminates this information in so-called one-year and five-year period estimates. The lead data expert on this year鈥檚 Kids Count report, Flo Gutierrez, noted that while the one-year estimates are more responsive to and reflective of recent changes, they lack reliable data for 13 states and D.C., forcing the report to rely on five-year estimates, which she called 鈥渢he next best thing.鈥� 

While Gutierrez said this data was still reliable and accurate, it does include some noise from the disruption caused by the pandemic which leads to 鈥渟ome masking of progress鈥� at both the state and national levels. For instance, while the five-year national estimates show a decline by 2 percentage points in enrollment, the one-year estimates for 2019 and 2024 show enrollment held steady. 

Steven Barnett, director of the National Institute for Early Education Research at Rutgers University, who has spent decades studying this data, expressed much stronger skepticism around using the five-year estimates, arguing the pandemic-era numbers muddy the findings beyond reliable use.

鈥淚f we want to know about 2024, I wouldn鈥檛 use it,鈥� Barnett said. 鈥淚f we want to know about kids鈥� experiences during the pandemic and up to 2024, then you could make a case to use it. But you have to realize, this is about kids losing out during the pandemic and not what happened to them during 2024 鈥� much less where they are now.鈥�

Barnett added that this methodology actually penalizes states with public preschool options, which he argued were more likely to close during the pandemic. He said this leaves the state-by-state comparisons 鈥渃olossally off.鈥�

Still, in his own research, Barnett said he has seen declining participation in state-based preschool enrollment that began even before the pandemic. He attributes this to a number of factors, including an increase in homeschooling rates, rising childcare costs, falling Head Start enrollment and declining trust in public institutions generally.

Christin Harper, policy director at Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families, has witnessed these challenges in her state, which saw the greatest decline in preschool enrollment, with a drop of 9 percentage points, from 50% to 41%. Like Barlow in Delaware, Harper pointed to both affordability and access issues; neither state has universal, publicly funded preschool.

showed that of the 75 counties in Arkansas, 50 face a gap of 40% or more between the number of kids under age 5 and the number of available, regulated childcare seats.

鈥淎nd not surprisingly,鈥� she added, 鈥渢hose who are more affected are going to be your rural counties.鈥�

Harper said it鈥檚 important to look at systems outside of education as well. Nationally, there was a 3% increase in the percentage of families spending more than 30% of their income on housing between 2019 and 2024, according to the Kids Count Data. But for Arkansas residents, the number putting that much of their paycheck toward rent or a mortgage spiked by 15% during that same period.

鈥淣ow, we鈥檝e got 1 out of every 4 kids in Arkansas living in a high-housing, cost-burden household and so that just shows us that wages are not keeping up with basic needs,鈥� Harper said.

And she fears this landscape will only worsen in the coming months and years. This past fall, the state鈥檚 office of Early Child Care announced sweeping changes to the School Readiness Program, including cutting rates to providers and increasing co-payments for parents. That鈥檚 in addition to federal funding reductions, neither of which are reflected in the Kids Count data. 

鈥淢ore and more, we鈥檝e heard the Trump administration talk about the need for states to take on more costs, and for poor states like Arkansas that鈥檚 going to impact us more,鈥� she said.

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