States that joined a national pledge led by three high-profile education advocacy and research groups to cut chronic absenteeism in half over five years fared better. The 16 states and Washington, D.C. posted results 鈥渟ubstantially above the average rate鈥� of decline, though exact numbers are not yet available, said Nat Malkus, deputy director of education policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, one of the trio.

The national chronic absenteeism average dropped from 28.5% in 2022 to 25.4% in 2023, and fell an additional two points to 23.5% in 2024. Virginia, which is among the 16 participating states, cut its chronic absenteeism by 4.4 percentage points, year over year, to 15.7%, as of spring 2024.

Speaking of the states collectively, Malkus told 社区黑料, 鈥淭hat鈥檚 good but it鈥檚 not as good as we need it to be. I think it points to the need for sustained pressure and a sustained campaign to bring absence rates down and to bring more students back to consistent attendance.鈥�

Last July, AEI and EdTrust, right-and left-leaning think tanks, respectively, and the national nonprofit Attendance Works joined forces to launch The 50% Challenge. This week, the organizations hosted in Washington, D.C., to report on their progress, re-up the call to action and hear insights from state, district and community partners on how they are improving student attendance and engagement.

With California and Georgia recently joining, the 16 states and D.C. who signed on to the pledge account for more than a third of all students nationally. While Malkus doesn鈥檛 necessarily attribute their better results to the pledge itself, he noted that their participation shows a willingness to commit to the cause and be publicly accountable for their results. 

鈥淚 will hold their feet to the fire on this goal,鈥� he added during his opening remarks in D.C.

While felt most acutely by students of color and those in poorer districts, the spike in chronic absenteeism 鈥� students missing more than 10% of school days a year 鈥� regardless of size, racial breakdown or income. Chronic absenteeism from 13.4% in 2017 to 28.5% in 2022 before beginning to drop in 2023.

Only about one-third of students nationally are in districts that are on pace to cut 2022 absenteeism in half by 2027, according to an , and rates improved more slowly in 2024 than they did in 2023, 鈥渞aising the very real possibility that absenteeism rates might never return to pre-pandemic levels.

Research has shown that students with high rates of absenteeism are more likely to fall behind academically and are at a greater risk of dropping out of school. About 8% of all learning loss from the pandemic is attributed just to chronic absenteeism, according to soon-to-be-released AEI research.

The continued disproportionate impacts of chronic absenteeism were confirmed by recent , which found that in roughly half of urban school districts, more than 30% of students were chronically absent 鈥� a far higher share of students than in rural or suburban school districts.

RAND also found that the most commonly reported reason for missing school was sickness and one-quarter of kids did not think that being chronically absent was a problem.

SchoolStatus, a private company that works with districts to reduce chronic absenteeism, also released  for some 1.3 million K-12 students across 172 districts in nine states. Districts using proactive interventions, the company reports, drove down chronic absenteeism rates from 21.9% in 2023鈥�24 to 20.9% in 2024鈥�25.

At this week鈥檚 event, numerous experts across two panels emphasized the importance of a tiered approach to confronting the issue, which has resisted various remedies. Schools must build enough trust and buy-in with kids and their families that they are willing to share why they are absent in the first place. Once those root causes are identified, it is up to school, district and state leaders to work to remove the barriers.

And while data monitoring must play a significant role, it should be done in a way that is inclusive of families.

鈥淲e need to analyze data with families, not at them,鈥� said Augustus Mays, EdTrust鈥檚 vice president of partnerships and engagement.

It鈥檚 imperative to understand the individual child beyond the number they represent and to design attendance plans and strategies with families so they feel supported rather than chastised.

鈥淚t’s around choosing belonging over punitive punishment,鈥� Mays added.

One major and common mistake schools make is “accountability without relationships,鈥� said Sonja Brookins Santelises, the superintendent of Baltimore City Public Schools.

鈥淵ou can鈥檛 鈥榩ull people up鈥� if you don鈥檛 have enough knowledge of what they鈥檙e really going through,鈥� she said.

Panelists were transparent that all this would require immense funding, staff and community partnerships.

Virginia achieved its noteworthy drop in chronic absenteeism after launching a $418 million education initiative in the fall of 2023, in part after seeing their attendance data sink, with about 1 in 5 students chronically missing school. At least 10% of those funds are earmarked to prioritize attendance solutions in particular, according to panelist Emily Anne Gullickson, the superintendent of public instruction for the Virginia Department of Education.听

These strategies are far-reaching, she noted: Because parents had been told throughout the pandemic to keep their kids home at the slightest sign of illness, schools partnered with pediatricians and school nurses to help counter the no-longer-necessary 鈥渟tay home鈥� narrative.

Gullickson said she also broke down bureaucratic silos, connecting transportation directors and attendance directors, after realizing the role that transit played in chronic absenteeism. The state now has second chance buses as well as walking and led by parents or teachers along a fixed route, who pick up students along the way.

And they are 鈥渙n a mission to move away from seat time and really deliver more flexibility on where, when and how kids are learning,鈥� she said. 

鈥淭his isn鈥檛 one strategy. It鈥檚 a set of strategies,鈥� said Attendance Works founder and executive director Hedy Chang, who moderated the panel.

In Connecticut, state leaders have launched the , a research-based model that sends trained support staff to families鈥� homes to build relationships and better understand why their kids are missing school. 

A recent study confirmed that six months after the program鈥檚 first home visits, attendance rates improved by approximately 10 percentage points for K-8 students, and nearly 16 percentage points for high schoolers, said Charlene Russell-Tucker, the commissioner of the Connecticut State Department of Education.

Schools must also work to motivate kids to want to show up in the first place, panelists said, making it a meaningful place that students believe will support and help them in the long run. The only way to do this is to start with student and family feedback, said Brookins, the Baltimore schools chief.

During the pandemic many parents saw up-close for the first time what their kids鈥� classrooms and teacher interactions looked like, 鈥渁nd I don鈥檛 think a lot of folks liked what they saw for a variety of different reasons,鈥� Brookins said.

鈥淚 think it opened up boxes of questions that we 鈥� as the education establishment 鈥� were unprepared to answer,鈥� she added. But chronic absenteeism cannot be successfully fought without engaging in those uncomfortable conversations.

Disclosure: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation provides financial support to EdTrust and 社区黑料.

A new analysis of data from three states 鈥� North Carolina, Texas and Virginia 鈥� shows that prior to COVID, 17% of students were chronically absent, meaning they missed at least 10% of the school year. By 2023, long after schools had to cope with new variants and hybrid schedules, that figure hit 37%.

鈥淎bsences are both more common for everybody, but they are also more extreme,鈥� said Jacob Kirksey, an associate professor of education policy at Texas Tech University.

Additional new research shows that while post-pandemic chronic absenteeism lingers across the board, rates were substantially higher for low-income students. In North Carolina, for example, the chronic absenteeism rate for students in poverty before the pandemic was 9.2 percentage points higher than for non-poor students. By 2023, the gap increased to 14.6 percentage points.

鈥淭he income gap really was the main driver that showed up over and over again,鈥� said Morgan Polikoff, an education researcher at the University of Southern California. But it鈥檚 hard for schools to make a dent in the problem, he said, if they aren鈥檛 investigating the reasons for chronic absenteeism. 鈥淭here’s a big difference between the kid [who] has an illness and is chronically sick versus the kid [who] is super disengaged.鈥�

Kirksey and Polikoff were among several researchers who Friday at an American Enterprise Institute event focused on facing what Kirksey called the 鈥渦nder-the-hood dynamics鈥� of chronic absenteeism in the post-COVID era. Since 2022, when the national average peaked at 28%, the rate has dropped to 23% 鈥� still much higher than the pre-COVID level of about 15%, according to the conservative think tank鈥檚 . 

鈥淚 have a question that keeps me up at night. That question is 鈥榃hat’s the new normal going to be?鈥� 鈥� said Nat Malkus, the deputy director of education policy at AEI. 鈥淲e see this rising tide, but I think that it’s incumbent on us to say that chronic absenteeism still affects disadvantaged students more.鈥�

The research project began in September with the goal of offering guidance to districts in time for students鈥� return to school this fall. The researchers stressed that those most likely to be chronically absent this school year 鈥� low-income, highly mobile and homeless students 鈥� are the same ones who will frequently miss school next year.

鈥淎bsenteeism should seldom come as a surprise,鈥� said Sam Hollon, an education data analyst at AEI. 鈥淚t’s hard to justify delaying interventions until absences have accumulated.鈥� 

Teacher absenteeism

One new finding revealed Friday contradicts a theory that gained traction following the pandemic 鈥� that students were more likely to be absent if their teachers were also out. As with students, teacher absenteeism increased during the pandemic and hasn鈥檛 returned to pre-COVID levels. 

The relationship between teacher absences and student absences, however, is 鈥減retty negligible,鈥� said Arya Ansari, an associate professor of human development and family science at The Ohio State University. 

鈥淭hese absences among teachers don’t actually contribute to the post-COVID bump that we’ve seen in student absences,鈥� he said. 鈥淭argeting teacher absences isn’t going to move the needle.鈥�

The researchers discussed how even some well-intentioned responses to the COVID emergency have allowed chronic absenteeism to persist. States, Malkus said, made it easier to graduate despite frequent absences and missing school doesn鈥檛 necessarily prevent students from turning in their work.

鈥淚n my day, you had to get a packet and do the work at home鈥� if you were absent, Polikoff said. In interviews with 40 families after the pandemic, 39 said it was easy to make up work because of Google Classroom and other online platforms. 鈥淗ow many said, 鈥楲et鈥檚 make it harder鈥�? Zero.鈥�

In another presentation, Ethan Hutt, an associate education professor at the University of North Carolina, estimated that chronic absenteeism accounts for about 7.5% of overall pandemic learning loss and about 9.2% for Black and low-income students 鈥� a 鈥渘ontrivial, but modest鈥� impact. 

He stressed that missing school also affects student engagement and relationships with teachers. While technology has made it easier for students to keep up, 鈥渢here may be other harms that we want to think about and grapple with,鈥� he said. 

From one to 49

The new research comes as states are mounting new efforts to more closely track chronic absenteeism data and share it with the public. In 2010, only one state 鈥� Maryland 鈥� published absenteeism data on its state education agency website. Now, 49 states 鈥� all but New Hampshire 鈥� report rates on an annual, monthly or even daily basis, according to a released Tuesday by Attendance Works, an advocacy and research organization.听

The systems allow educators and the public to more quickly identify which students are most affected and when spikes occur. Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Washington D.C. post rates even before the end of the school year. Rhode Island offers real-time data, while Connecticut publishes monthly reports.

The New Hampshire Department of Education doesn鈥檛 monitor chronic absenteeism, but has a statewide 92.7% attendance rate, a spokesperson said. 

The report highlights states that have taken action to reduce chronic absenteeism. In Virginia, bus drivers ensure their routes include students who might be more likely to struggle with transportation. With state funds, , west of Washington, D.C., opened a center for students on short-term suspension to minimize the when a student is removed from the classroom. 

Overall chronic absenteeism in the state declined from 19.3% in 2022-23 to 15.7% in 2023-24. To Hedy Chang, executive director of Attendance Works, such improvement proves 鈥渨e can still get things done in our country and in education, despite all of the culture wars and binary thinking.鈥�

鈥楶riced out鈥�

Some district and school leaders have looked to their peers for ideas on how to get kids back in school. After participating in a six-month program with 16 other districts across the country organized by the nonprofit Digital Promise, Mark Brenneman, an elementary principal in New York鈥檚 Hudson City Schools, started interviewing families about their challenges. 

He learned that Hispanic parents often keep their children home when it rains because they鈥檙e worried they鈥檙e going to catch a cold. Several had transportation challenges. His school, Smith Elementary, even contributed to the problem, he said, by holding concerts, award ceremonies or other family events in the morning. Parents would come to celebrate their children鈥檚 accomplishments, then take them out for lunch and not return.

Hudson, about 40 miles south of Albany, has undergone significant change since the pandemic, added Superintendent Juliette Pennyman. Some families leaving New York City have settled in Hudson, driving up the cost of housing. 

鈥淥ur families are being priced out of the community,鈥� she said. 鈥淗ousing insecurity was 鈥� affecting families鈥� and students鈥� ability to focus on school.鈥�

As a result of the intense focus on the issue, Smith, which had a 29% chronic absenteeism rate last year, has seen an about a 15% increase in the number of students with good attendance. 

鈥淚t’s not like we’re down to like 10% chronically absent,鈥� Brenneman said. 鈥淏ut we’ve hammered away.鈥� 

Three high-profile education advocacy and research groups crossed political lines in Washington, D.C., Wednesday to announce an ambitious goal: cutting chronic absenteeism in half over the next five years.听

For the first time, the conservative American Enterprise Institute, the left-leaning Education Trust and the national nonprofit Attendance Works joined forces to confront an issue that continues to plague K-12 classrooms four years after the pandemic first hit. 

鈥淭his is not a problem for some schools. This is not a problem for some subset of students. This is a nationwide rising of a tide that鈥檚 going to harm [all] students,” said Nat Malkus, AEI’s deputy director of education policy studies. 

While felt most acutely by students of color and those in poorer districts, the spike in chronic absenteeism 鈥� students missing more than 10% of school days a year 鈥� regardless of size, racial breakdown or income. Chronic absenteeism from 13% in 2017 to 28% in 2022 and remained high in 2023. 

Research has shown that students with high rates of absenteeism are more likely to fall behind academically and are at a greater risk of dropping out of school. The three organizations are eyeing a return to those pre-pandemic percentages.

鈥淭he goal is to get us back to a baseline where we knew we needed to do a lot more work anyway, but at least we can work towards that and do so aggressively,鈥� Lynn Jennings, The Education Trust’s senior director of national and state partnerships told 社区黑料.听

Five years from the launch would be 2029, but the groups are hoping that districts further along in their efforts will be able to hit the benchmark by 2027 鈥� five years after chronic absenteeism’s 2022 peak.

The goal is doable, according to Topeka schools Superintendent Tiffany Anderson, who spoke at a panel discussion Ed Trust, AEI and Attendance Works held in D.C. this week to launch their initiative. The 12,858-student district was able to lower its chronic absenteeism by investing in families through home visits. In Topeka, if a student is absent for more than two days without parent contact, it warrants a visit.

鈥淵ou cannot serve needs you don鈥檛 know. So the key is understanding 鈥� it works,鈥� she added.

Numerous experts at the event discussed the importance of a tiered approach to confront an issue that has resisted various interventions. Schools, they said, must create trust and communication with families so they can learn why students are absent 鈥� as officials did in Topeka 鈥� but then, they must work to actually remove those barriers. 

Anderson said in speaking with her Kansas families she learned that chronic health issues, such as asthma, were impacting student attendance. So, she brought health care to the school, partnering with a local hospital. Now students and their families can see a pediatrician on site.

Some schools, panel experts noted, get stuck in that first tier: understanding families鈥� struggles in getting their children to school, but never implementing the solutions. Another remedy discussed at the panel, which included the vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, Caitlin Codella Low, was emphasizing career pathways so school feels more meaningful to students and necessary to their own futures.

At the event, Attendance Works presented a six-step roadmap to assist states in achieving a 50% reduction in chronic absenteeism and will develop resources to share with state leaders moving forward.

鈥淥ur work over the past 10 years shows us that state leaders are uniquely positioned to take on this challenge,鈥� they wrote. And these three organizations, they believe, are uniquely positioned to help.

Attendance Works founder and executive director Hedy Chang said her organization brings the 鈥渉ow:鈥� They鈥檙e able to provide states and districts with the advice, tips, and resources to take action. Education Trust brings the advocacy lens and helps keep school districts accountable through data. And The American Enterprise Institute brings a more conservative audience to the conversation, along with the data.

惭补濒办耻蝉鈥檚 , where he compiles and analyzes district-level attendance data for over 14,700 school districts and charter schools nationwide, will serve as the hub to help states see if they are on track to meet the five-year benchmark. 

鈥淲e鈥檝e got to take a long-term approach, and we鈥檝e got to use our data to call everyone,鈥� Chang said. 鈥淚t needs all hands on deck.鈥�

Denise Forte, president and CEO at Education Trust, noted the importance of the cross-organization partnership, saying that while she and Malkus haven鈥檛 historically always agreed on policy issues, this was one where they knew they could 鈥� and needed to 鈥� come together. 

The urgency of the issue created a shared sense of purpose, all three groups said.

鈥淲e鈥檙e in a pretty partisan world. People feel so divided on so many things,鈥� Chang added. 鈥淏ut we can鈥檛 risk our children鈥檚 future by being divided on this one.鈥�

Clarification: This article has been updated to better reflect the timeline in which the three organizations aim to cut chronic absenteeism by half.

Disclosure: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation provides financial support to The Education Trust and 社区黑料.

That fact that three former education agency employees were among those indicted shows that the program lacks adequate fraud prevention measures, said Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes.

鈥淚t was very easy for these individuals to do this,鈥� Mayes said during a press conference. They鈥檙e accused of faking birth certificates and special education evaluations to bilk over $600,000 from the program. 鈥淚 think we all have to be asking the question: 鈥業s it being replicated?鈥� 鈥� 

But ESA advocates saw little in the news that would lead them to push for more guardrails on Arizona鈥檚 system or halt the movement for in other states. Some dismissed it as an 鈥渋nside job鈥� that reflects more on government corruption than the thousands of families looking for better educational options for their children. To this group, the fact that Arizona investigators uncovered the alleged plot shows that existing safeguards worked.

鈥淚 don’t think there’s any program that can regulate out the possibility of bad actors,鈥� said Lisa Snell, senior fellow at Stand Together Trust, a foundation funding school choice initiatives, and one of the leading voices nationally on ESAs. 鈥淚n any sector, there are people that are taking advantage of taxpayer money.鈥� 

She pointed to the national and as two government programs that have proven vulnerable to corruption. And she noted an investigation last year that found Los Angeles teachers union members received .

鈥淕overnment employees committing fraud is a tale as old as time, and by no means unique to education,鈥� said Mike McShane, director of national research at EdChoice, an advocacy organization.

鈥楾his kind of abuse鈥�

Unlike their counterparts in several states, Arizona private schools accepting ESA students don鈥檛 have to be accredited and their staff members don鈥檛 have to pass criminal background checks. There are also no testing requirements for students, and while homeschooling parents are required to use funds to teach core subjects, many pull curriculum materials from the internet. 

Some argue that, with a little over 30 employees, the program lacks the staff to accommodate its rapid growth to nearly 76,000 students since 2022. 

鈥淲hat I’m most concerned about is how ripe the program clearly is for this kind of abuse,鈥� Mayes said in detailing the .

Suspects Dolores Lashay Sweet, Dorrian Lamarr Jones and Jennifer Lopez were ESA program specialists at the department who allegedly admitted real and fictitious students 鈥� some with identical birthdays 鈥� to the program and then approved expenses on their behalf. Jadakah Celeste Johnson, and Raymond Lamont Johnson, Jr., also indicted, are Sweet鈥檚 adult children. 

In an odd coincidence, just hours after the indictments, educators met in Washington, D.C. at the conservative American Enterprise Institute whether Democrats should get behind the ESA movement. Arizona鈥檚 program came up frequently.

鈥淣o academic accountability. No financial transparency. No student safety measures,鈥� said Bethany Little, managing principal at Education Counsel, a consulting firm. 

鈥淚 agree with you on the flaws of Arizona鈥檚 law,鈥� responded Ravi Gupta, a former Obama staffer and charter school leader who said he supports the idea of ESAs, but sometimes questions their implementation. 

In several other states that have embraced ESAs, administrators say they鈥檝e put guardrails in place to prevent fraud and corruption. 

In Utah, where applications for the state鈥檚 new ESA program opened last week, advanced software is designed to spot fake documents, said Jackie Guglielmo, vice president of ESA programs at the Alliance for Choice in Education, which runs the program. If the system flags something irregular, a member of the customer support team will manually review it and might ask for additional documentation, she said.

New Hampshire officials employ to differentiate people processing applications from those who approve vendors. A third group approves expenses. A bill to passed the state House last month.

Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs has proposed for the program by having an outside auditor track how private schools are using ESA money. 

But Snell, with Stand Together Trust, said she doubts there are any reforms that would satisfy most Democrats. She was among the school choice supporters gathered at a over the weekend to highlight the growth of microschools, homeschool co-ops and other unconventional programs. 

Not all of the programs represented accept ESA funds, but many attendees view their success as critical to the future of their movement. John Thompson, a researcher from Kennesaw State University, which organized the event, said the notion that ESAs are a fad is 鈥渧ery crazy and wrong.鈥�

鈥淚t鈥檚 not going backward,鈥� he said.

Kaity Broadbent of Prenda Learning, a microschool network, said alternative models are responding to parents who feel their children weren鈥檛 well served in a typical classroom.

鈥淭his generation of parents cares about mental health,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 just need their kids to get into Harvard. There鈥檚 a new vibe.鈥�

While sessions focused on policy and accountability, no one mentioned the indictments.

鈥楤igger than any superintendent鈥�

Inside Arizona, however, the news upset advocates who say thousands of children are benefiting from the flexibility ESAs offer.

鈥淭his type of thing is just devastating to those of us who really depend on the program,鈥� said Kathy Visser, who administers a Facebook page for ESA families and vendors. 鈥淚t angers us because accountability matters more to us than anyone else.鈥�

Hobbs has also proposed background checks for staff members at private schools accepting ESA funds and for students to attend public school for a minimum of 100 days before they qualify for the program. But have opposed the measures, likening them to 鈥渄eath by a thousand cuts.鈥�

This was the second batch of indictments involving the program since last summer, when a grand jury in Maricopa County accused of fraud and theft of over $87,000 from the program. 

They allegedly created receipts and claimed reimbursements for 鈥渂ogus鈥� educational services, according to a prosecution report. When investigators examined one woman鈥檚 account linked to the ESA program, they found charges at retail stores, restaurants and companies like Uber and Airbnb. The case is ongoing.

Also last summer, the former head administrator of the ESA program, Christine Accurso, and another high-ranking official, Linda Rizzo, following a 鈥渃ybersecurity incident鈥� in which student names and their disabilities to a parent through ClassWallet, the program鈥檚 online financial platform. 

Superintendent Tom Horne, a Republican and strong advocate for ESAs, hired Accurso when he defeated Democratic incumbent Kathy Hoffman in 2022. After Accurso鈥檚 resignation, Horne put John Ward, who has years of auditing experience, in charge of the program. 

While a tip from a credit union alerted officials to large amounts being withdrawn from Sweet鈥檚 account, Horne, , said it was his department that raised concerns about Jones and Lopez and that he is working to 鈥渞oot out potential fraud and abuse.鈥� 

But in an email to 社区黑料, Hoffman said the state legislature should reform the program and fund more fraud prevention efforts.

鈥淯ltimately, the problems with this program are bigger than any superintendent,鈥� she said. 鈥淭he ESA program does not have 鈥� and has never had 鈥� enough oversight to ensure tax dollars are being spent appropriately.鈥�

Disclosure: Stand Together Trust provides financial support to 社区黑料.

But even that prediction rests on optimistic assumptions about continued improvement in the coming years. For some states, it could take longer. In Louisiana, Oregon and South Carolina, for example, the percentage of students chronically absent for at least 10% of the school year went up in 2022-23, from the American Enterprise Institute.听

The report, based on available data from 39 states, calls chronic absenteeism 鈥渟chools鈥� greatest post-pandemic challenge.鈥� 

鈥淲e need to make a hard pivot moving forward,鈥� said Nat Malkus, a senior fellow at the conservative think tank. Minor decreases in chronic absenteeism rates are not enough to stave off 鈥渁 disaster for the long term鈥� he said, especially in low-performing and high-poverty districts that had serious absenteeism problems before the pandemic.

Malkus, a former middle school teacher, called for districts to make attendance a high priority, especially among elementary educators. Parents, he said, are more likely to respond to messages from children鈥檚 teachers than from 鈥渁 stranger from the school district.鈥� 

The report, one of two separate studies of chronic absenteeism released Wednesday, further underscores the enormity of a national crisis that is hindering students鈥� ability to recover academically from the pandemic. The second analysis shows a substantial increase in the share of districts where at least 30% of students missed 18 or more days of school. 

The review of federal data breaks down the rates into five levels of chronic absenteeism, with extreme being the highest. 

鈥淲e came up with these categories before the pandemic,鈥� said Hedy Chang, executive director of Attendance Works. At that point, nearly 11% of districts nationally had extreme levels. 鈥淭hen the pandemic hit, and it was like 鈥極h my God.鈥� 鈥�

By 2021-22, the rate had more than tripled to almost 39%, , the final installment in a three-part from Attendance Works and the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University. The data 鈥渃ompels action from state education agencies and policymakers,鈥� researchers wrote.听

鈥業t鈥檚 alarming鈥�

Some state lawmakers share that sense of urgency. So far, eight bills in seven states aim to reestablish good attendance habits among the nation鈥檚 students. 

Earlier this month, a Maryland called interim state chief Carey Wright to testify about whether news reports of shockingly high rates 鈥� with over half of students repeatedly missing school 鈥� were true.  

鈥淚t鈥檚 alarming,鈥� she told the members, after sharing district and state-level data. 鈥淲e have a lot of children who are chronically absent at very young grades, and that’s a real concern, particularly when you’re thinking that they’re starting their educational career.鈥�

In Maryland, 274 schools out of 1,388 had an extreme chronic absenteeism rate in 2017-18. By 2021-22, that number had reached 700.

Lori Phelps, principal of Woodbridge Elementary in Catonsville, joined Wright to explain how her staff reduced its rate from 28% in 2021-22 to just over 9% in 2022-23.

Identifying patterns that increase absences is part of the answer, she added. For example, students were more likely to miss school on early-release days, so the staff worked with parent leaders to offer an afternoon program on those days. The PTA charged $10, but waived the fee for students with the most absences.

鈥淲e all want to prioritize those very important state scores,鈥� Phelps said, 鈥渂ut we made a decision two years ago to prioritize attendance.鈥�

No buses

But even parents determined to get their children to school face significant obstacles if they don鈥檛 have transportation. In Colorado, every district has to save money or because of driver shortages, said Michelle Exstrom, education director for the National Conference of State Legislatures. She serves on a expected to propose transportation solutions by the end of the year.  

鈥淚n rural areas all over the country, where kids don’t have a ride to school, it’s like, duh, they’re not going to be at school,鈥� she said. A lot of parents can鈥檛 leave work at 2:30 to pick up their children, she said, and even high school students with cars often can鈥檛 drive to school because there鈥檚 not enough parking, she said.

In Ohio, two lawmakers think some might reduce chronic absenteeism in kindergarten and ninth grade, two grade levels with rates around 30%. 

The bill, from Democrat Rep. Dani Isaacsohn and Republican Rep. Bill Seitz, would offer $500 annually to families in low-income districts to boost attendance rates in those grades and ideally save money on dropout recovery services in the long run. If passes, it would start as a pilot this fall .

Seitz told 社区黑料 he expects 鈥渟ignificant supportive testimony,鈥� based on the success of a similar program led by a .

Another proposal in , which had a 30% chronic absenteeism rate last year, would provide for home visits and tutoring to keep frequently absent high school students on track for graduation. And a would update the definition of 鈥渆ducational neglect鈥� to include a parent鈥檚 failure to comply with attendance requirements.

鈥楽tudied in real time鈥�

But both Malkus and Chang expressed skepticism of state solutions that fail to factor in the highly localized nature of the problem. , for example, one reason chronic absenteeism levels haven鈥檛 dropped is because 鈥渢here are whole communities still feeling the effects of wildfires,鈥� said Marc Siegel, spokesman for the state education department. In general, Malkus said it鈥檚 unlikely state legislation would be 鈥渁 rapid-enough response.鈥� And Chang worried that legislators could be 鈥渢oo prescriptive.鈥�

鈥淚 think folks have to have local flexibility to unpack the issues,鈥� she said. 

But she does think states are helping in at least one critical area: producing more accurate and timely data. 

In the past, it was often June before states released chronic absenteeism data from the year before 鈥� a fact that delayed efforts to help students. In Rhode Island, the public can the percentage of students at each school on track to be chronically absent by the end of the year. Malkus would like to see more leaders take that approach.

 鈥淚f we want to address it with eyes wide open,鈥� he wrote, 鈥渃hronic absenteeism needs to be studied in real time.鈥�

鈥淭his is the biggest problem facing America,鈥� Jens Ludwig, a University of Chicago professor, said flatly. Nonetheless, he told those assembled at the Washington, D.C., event sponsored by the , a think tank, 鈥淲e do not have our hair on fire the way it needs to be.鈥�

That disconnect is the subject of a new released Monday that further explores what many have labeled an 鈥�urgency gap.鈥� To pinpoint the extent of the gap, the authors talked to parents about the signals they鈥檙e getting from teachers and schools about their children鈥檚 progress. Parents expressed little concern about lasting damage from the pandemic and typically thought their children were doing well in school 鈥� a view that researchers say is belied by dismal state and national test scores. 

The issue is 鈥済enuinely vexing,鈥� said Morgan Polikoff, an associate education professor at the University of Southern California and the paper鈥檚 lead author.  

鈥淧arents are overwhelmingly getting the message from grades and teachers that kids are doing fine-to-great,鈥� he said. He attributes that upbeat outlook to how little parents pay attention to standardized test scores 鈥� the 鈥渆xternal measures鈥� that matter most to researchers. 鈥淲e just never heard anything about standardized tests from the folks we interviewed.鈥�

The 2022 National Assessment of Educational Progress showed historic declines in math and flat performance in reading. According to this year鈥檚 spring test results, pandemic recovery remains elusive for some states. Several have continued to lose ground in reading and most have not surpassed pre-COVID performance in math. Last week鈥檚 release of international scores show U.S. students dropped 13 points in math between 2018 and 2022. 

Ludwig argues that U.S. students have made such little progress that the $190 billion Congress appropriated to address the COVID crisis is insufficient and lawmakers should find to fund high-dosage tutoring.  

鈥淚f we don’t remediate this pandemic learning loss, this cohort of 50 million kids will experience reduced lifetime earnings of something like $900 billion,鈥� he said.

Those messages, however, don鈥檛 always get to parents. 

Given the gauntlet of tests schools administer, it鈥檚 easy for parents to get lost, said Meredith Dodson, executive director of San Francisco Parent Action, a group that advocated for schools to reopen and has recently pushed for improvements in the district鈥檚 reading program.

For many parents, 鈥溾�嬧�媔t’s hard to understand all the acronyms 鈥� this test versus that test, the state versus the national,鈥� she said. 鈥淧arents just really want to trust their teachers. Is my kid on grade level or not?鈥�

Even some parents who knew their children鈥檚 standardized test scores tended to put more stock in grades, Polikoff found. One parent interviewed for the study knew that a majority of students scored higher than her son on the NWEA MAP test in math. But, she said, 鈥渉is knowledge is much greater than that鈥� because he received a 3 on a scale of 1-3 on his report card, which 鈥渕eans they鈥檝e achieved the mastery or whatever.鈥� 

Researchers have documented  between grade point averages and , especially since the pandemic. from three organizations 鈥� EdNavigator, Learning Heroes and TNTP 鈥� showed an increase in B grades since the pandemic even among students who performed below grade level and were chronically absent.

鈥楰ids are not stupid鈥�

Schools have also made it easier to do well, a vestige of pandemic-era incentives to get students to complete their work. Dan Goldhaber, director of the CALDER Center at the American Institutes for Research 鈥� and the father of two school-age children 鈥� said he鈥檚 increasingly 鈥渁stounded鈥� at how many chances students get to bring up their grades.

鈥淜ids are not stupid,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey’re going to learn that, 鈥楴o, I don’t need to study real hard for this test because I can just correct it after the fact.鈥�”

It鈥檚 not a surprise, he added, that there鈥檚 been a lackluster response to some academic recovery efforts. A lot of districts have spent relief funds on less-effective remediation efforts, such as optional on-demand tutoring. And those companies typically get paid whether or not students improve or even use the service, according to . 

In response to disappointing results, some states and districts have shifted course. A few have with large online tutoring companies. Some have turned to 鈥渙utcomes-based鈥� contracts 鈥� in which tutors earn more money for better results. But others are sticking with . 

If districts are going to spend funds on tutoring, Goldhaber said, officials should 鈥渉ave some control over鈥� which students receive the help and when it鈥檚 delivered.

He and Polikoff are among the experts urging educators to make test score data a much larger focus of their conversations with parents. And there鈥檚 some evidence that hard facts about students鈥� scores can be a wake-up call.

A November showed that among parents who knew their children were below grade level in math, improving those skills became their number one concern, more important than curbing the effects of social media and protecting them from bullies.

Being honest with parents starts at the top, said Nat Malkus, deputy director of Education Policy Studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. 

鈥淪uperintendents should not say, 鈥榃e鈥檙e chugging along. We’re going to get there.鈥� They should say this is a huge problem,鈥� he said at the Aspen event. Teachers, he added, need 鈥減olitical cover鈥� to tell parents their children are behind. 鈥淚t’s the truth and we need to deliver it.鈥� 

But the news doesn鈥檛 always go over well. When Precious Allen, who teaches second grade at Betty Shabazz Academy, a charter school in Chicago, showed parents test results that indicated their children were a year or more behind, she said they grew 鈥渇lustered鈥� and complained about doing extra review sheets with their children after work. 

It was tough, she said, for them to 鈥渨rap their minds around鈥� the data. She shared passages from that explains where children should be for their age to help parents understand how the pandemic threw their kids off track. 鈥淚 had to bring a lot of science and research into it because sometimes the voice of a teacher is not enough.鈥�

鈥榃orst possible time鈥�

But not all educators believe assessments provide valuable or reliable information. Polikoff sees the separation between parents and the nation鈥檚 education scholars as part of a larger anti-testing movement that started brewing long . The pandemic pause on state assessments and accountability sparked a to limit the number of tests and try .

The Massachusetts Teachers Association, for example, is leading a to remove the state test as a graduation requirement, calling it 鈥渉armful.鈥� The proposal drew sharp criticism from National Parents Association President Keri Rodrigues, whose organization trains parents to advocate for quality education.

鈥淭his is the dawn of a new era, where high school diplomas now become participation trophies,鈥� she wrote in an . 

Testing critics complain that assessments take up too much instructional time and that the results rarely benefit teachers because they arrive after students have already moved on to the next grade. Others say high-stakes tests are racially biased against Black and Hispanic students. 

鈥淭here鈥檚 just very close to zero constituencies advocating for tests or that they matter,鈥� Polikoff said. Republicans, he said, 鈥渨ant only unfettered choice鈥� while the left is not defending the usefulness of tests 鈥渢o ensure educational quality or equity.鈥�

鈥橳he backlash against testing, he said, has come “at the worst possible time given the damage that鈥檚 actually been done.”

And those that offered mostly in-person learning during the first full school year of the pandemic not only lost fewer students but were more likely to recover enrollment the following year, according to the paper, released Monday from the American Enterprise Institute.

The analysis shows that enrollment loss was not just 鈥減andemic-related; it was pandemic-response related,鈥� said Nat Malkus, a senior fellow and the deputy director of education policy at the conservative think tank. The same, he said, applies to the decline in achievement chronicled in recent National Assessment of Educational Progress results.

鈥淭he idea that this is behind us is just absolutely wishful thinking. The consequences are very real,鈥� he said. 鈥淪ome say you鈥檙e going to wear your audience out by saying 鈥榣earning loss, learning loss.鈥� But if we had learning gains of the same size, how many headlines would we be looking at?鈥�

The study confirms a pattern that researchers at Stanford University identified and takes it a year further to show that families didn鈥檛 come flooding back to districts once they reopened. Now, almost three years after the pandemic began, more districts face the possibility of because of that enrollment loss. And some have used federal relief funds to in their budgets resulting from lost students. That means the so-called 鈥渇iscal cliff鈥� will be even tougher when funds dry up in two years, Malkus said. 

Preliminary for this school year are just beginning to trickle in from the states, and so far the outlook is mixed, according to Burbio, a data services company. Hawaii enrollment declined for a fourth straight year. After a rebound last year, enrollment in is down 1%. Delaware and Arkansas have seen small increases of less than 1% compared to last year, while enrollment is up 1.3% in North Dakota. 

It鈥檚 important to note, Malkus said, that urban districts that were closed the longest and had the most enrollment loss were also steadily losing students before COVID. The pandemic just accelerated that loss.

Those who moved their children to new schools during the pandemic might also be reluctant to make another change even if their lives returned to relative normalcy, Thomas Dee, a Stanford University economist who led last year鈥檚 research, wrote in a recent . 

That seems to be the case for those who enrolled in charter schools. from the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools showed that the large gains during the 2020-21 school year have 鈥渉eld steady.鈥�

Growth in pre-K

While districts lost students in middle and high school, leaders鈥� decisions to stay remote in 2020-21 placed 鈥渓arger burdens鈥� on families with children in the early grades and drove them to search for alternative schools that offered in-person learning, Malkus wrote in his report.

Young children, however, are now contributing to some enrollment growth. Data compiled by Burbio, shows that boosted enrollment last year in multiple districts, from Trenton, New Jersey, to Provo, Utah. In others, pre-K enrollment softened the blow of declines. For example, in Rochester, New York, enrollment would have been down 4.4% last year without pre-K. Instead, it decreased 2.5%. 

also partially accounts for an enrollment increase in the District of Columbia Public Schools this year, even though experts .

The impact of early-childhood programs on K-12 enrollment is particularly evident in California, now in the first year of a statewide expansion of transitional kindergarten, a program for 4-year-olds offered in elementary schools. 

A from the state鈥檚 Legislative Analyst鈥檚 Office estimated that 4-year-olds eligible for the program will account for almost half of enrollment growth in districts through the 2025-26 school year. 

Some districts, such as those in , opened their transitional kindergarten classrooms ahead of schedule, likely to prevent further enrollment decline. And the program is one reason why enrollment loss this fall in is roughly half of what officials forecasted.

To Dee, it makes sense that districts offering early learning programs have seen an uptick. 

鈥淎s people become comfortable accommodating (or simply ignoring) COVID-19 risks,鈥� he said, 鈥渢he families of rising cohorts of young students are likely to be more willing to reconsider public schools.鈥�

But he doubts that enrollment in pre-K and the early grades will be enough to offset the substantial losses districts saw two years ago. That鈥檚 because many families moved out of those districts altogether. In his op-ed, he wrote that the 鈥減andemic is fundamentally reshaping the broader economy,鈥� with more parents working from home and high housing costs pushing families out of urban areas.

Even if districts attract new families with young children, that won鈥檛 solve district-wide problems, Malkus added. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e not going to fill your second-grade classrooms with pre-K kids.鈥�

Now that the Democrats will stay in control of the Senate next year, Vermont聽Sen. Bernie Sanders, a far-left independent, has officially announced his intention to chair the education committee. According to a statement from his office, he’ll likely focus more on higher education and health care issues than K-12.

Meanwhile, conservative Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky 鈥� in line to be the top Republican on the committee 鈥斅爐hat he will instead take the role of ranking member on the聽Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. That leaves Louisiana Sen. Dr. Bill Cassidy as the next Republican in line for the job. Cassidy, an advocate for , is also considering a

The progessive believes in free college for all and wants to triple funding for poor schools.

The conservative once campaigned to abolish the U.S. Department of Education.

One is the son of a former Libertarian Party candidate for president and sounds a consistent drumbeat on schools: The federal government should stay out.

The other, ranked by one scorecard, is a self-described democratic socialist known for pushing just one education cut 鈥� to charter schools.

But in the latest example of the nation鈥檚 topsy-turvy politics, Vermont Independent Bernie Sanders and Kentucky Republican Rand Paul will soon be first in line to run the Senate education committee.

鈥淭hey鈥檙e a heck of an odd couple,鈥� said Rick Hess, a senior fellow and director of education policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

鈥淎lpha and omega,鈥� quipped Jack Jennings, a retired education policy expert and former Democratic staffer for the House.

Depending on the outcome of this week鈥檚 election, the two firebrands are the top contenders to be chair and ranking member of the Senate HELP Committee, which also oversees health, labor and pension issues. While it may seem increasingly inaptly named in an era of gridlock and rabid partisanship, the committee wields considerable power, overseeing a $235 billion education budget and issues from special education to preventing sexual harassment and discrimination in schools.

With Republicans already proposing to restrict lessons on gender identity and sexual orientation and the Biden administration engulfed in a to wipe out billions of dollars in student loan debt, there鈥檚 plenty of potential for the two to clash. Neither senator鈥檚 office responded to requests for comment.

The succession battle is triggered by the expected transition of longtime chair Patty Murray of Washington to a leadership position on the appropriations committee 鈥� that is, if she wins  against a suddenly formidable challenger鈥�  and the retirement of ranking member Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina.

From COVID closures to parent protests at school board meetings, the committee has seen its share of hot-button topics over the past two years. While hearings have been clearly partisan, Murray and Burr have kept the tone fairly civil.

Bethany Little, principal at EducationCounsel, a consulting firm, sees it as the end of an era in which members wanted 鈥渢o get things done.鈥� That鈥檚 how it was, she said, when she worked for the committee under former Democratic chairs Edward Kennedy and Tom Harkin. 

鈥淭here is a shift in the posture of the people taking charge and their interest in making a deal and being able to find middle ground,鈥� she said.

The ascendency of Sanders/Paul 鈥� or Paul/Sanders 鈥� is by no means assured. Earlier this year, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he expects Paul to run the committee if the GOP flips the Senate. But first, Paul has to defend his seat in Congress, which he鈥檚 expected to do in solidly Republican Kentucky. Sanders, for his part, would have to give up chairmanship of the budget committee. 

Some say that鈥檚 a switch he鈥檇 be likely to make. 

The senator 鈥済ot his green money,鈥� Hess said, referring to climate-related provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act. But for free preschool and community college, part of the original version of that bill, fell by the wayside. 

Sanders recently said he鈥檇 like to revive efforts to pass what he has described as 鈥渢ransformational鈥� programs for families, such as the larger child tax credit that was part of the American Rescue Plan. But he never wanted to stop at two years of free community college. He wants to be free and for the federal government to cancel all student debt.

As an advocate for , the chairmanship would also allow him to lead the panel that oversees the government鈥檚 various health-related agencies.

Health care issues might also be a reason why Paul, an eye surgeon, would savor the chance to chair the committee. Paul is known for his regular with medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci over COVID policies and vaccines. Paul wants to investigate allegations that tie Fauci to the virus鈥檚 creation by funding research in China. While Fauci categorically denies the allegations, an Oct. 20 Paul fundraising email declares, 鈥淚f you help me win, I promise to subpoena every last document of Dr. Fauci鈥檚 unprecedented coverup.鈥�

鈥淗e鈥檚 so off the rails on just about everything,鈥� said Charles Barone, a former Democratic staffer in the Senate and now vice president of K-12 policy with Democrats for Education Reform, a think tank. 鈥淗is level of combativeness and his general aversion to anything bipartisan is problematic.鈥�

Paul was the among the handful of Republicans to the Every Student Succeeds Act in 2015. Aside from wanting to put Education Secretary Miguel Cardona out of a job, he also proposes sending federal directly to parents.

Jennings said moderate Republicans on the committee 鈥� Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Mitt Romney of Utah 鈥� could mitigate some of Paul鈥檚  rhetoric.

But as for the Vermont senator, he said, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 any restraint on Sanders. He speaks his mind.鈥�

As Election Day nears, predictions on whether Democrats will hold onto the Senate change almost by the hour. According to election forecaster FiveThirtyEight, they are now in a with Republicans, who in the polls.

Regardless of who leads the committee, as long as one party holds a slim majority, there鈥檚 little chance members would advance bipartisan bills, said Michelle Dimino, deputy director of education for Third Way, a center-left think tank. 

鈥淚t鈥檚 more likely to stay in the realm of hearings and investigations,鈥� she said. 

Hess said he could see Republicans questioning how districts are spending COVID relief money, and Jennings added that they would likely try to stop the Biden administration鈥檚 move to cancel student debt.

鈥淭here鈥檚 enough for them to muck around in,鈥� Jennings said.

Possible common ground

Despite their differences, the two iconoclasts have one thing in common: They are both known for bucking their own parties 鈥� a trait that could make them occasional allies. One issue where the pair could find common ground is testing and accountability. the federal requirements to assess students annually as 鈥淲ashington鈥檚 intrusion into the classroom,鈥� and Sanders is an of standardized testing.

They might also find agreement on protecting student privacy. Paul has sought to roll back government surveillance programs, and Sanders is 鈥渨ary about big tech collecting data鈥� on students, said Lindsay Fryer, senior vice president of Penn Hill Group, an education lobbying firm.

Paul is also up for the top Republican seat on the homeland security committee and has said he doesn鈥檛 plan to make until after the election. That committee the , which would still give Paul a chance to put his stamp on expanding school choice.

Republicans want to see the program, which serves about 1,800 students, have 鈥渟table financial footing,鈥� said Lindsey Burke, director of the Center for Education Policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation. Right now, she said, it exists 鈥渁t the whim of Congress.鈥�

American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten is among those who probably hopes he鈥檒l choose homeland security. She told 社区黑料 that the prospect of him leading the education committee 鈥渁bsolutely鈥� keeps her up at night as she travels the country for Democratic candidates.

Given how far apart the parties are on education, leaders might have no problem with Paul and Sanders promoting their out-of-the-mainstream ideas.

But the opposite could also be true. 

Hess said Republicans could regret giving more attention to the idea of eliminating the education department. Likewise, he said, the 鈥淒emocrats might be better off if Sanders doesn’t have such a visible, public platform to talk about giving money away.鈥�

社区黑料鈥檚 senior reporter Jo Napolitano contributed to this report.

County-level voting patterns revealed school districts in Biden-elected counties lost more students over the last two academic years than those that voted for Trump because they tended to stay closed longer, according to the report.

Nat Malkus, a senior fellow and deputy director of education policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, had difficulty finding exceptions to the enrollment trend.

鈥淚t’s not just a school district story, it’s a community story,鈥� Malkus tells 社区黑料. 鈥淲ho bears responsibility for this to some degree? Dear reader, it may be you.鈥�

According to the report, public school K鈥�12 enrollment dropped by 2.9% 鈥� a loss of over 1.3 million students since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, marking the largest decline in the history of the U.S.

Here are the key takeaways from the report:

1. Disparities in student enrollment were influenced by school district decisions on in-person versus remote class time and safety measures.

Public school districts and their respective communities are described in the report as either 鈥淐OVID-cautious鈥� or 鈥淐OVID-assertive.鈥�

COVID-cautious districts are those that spent the most time in remote learning and maintained safety measures. In contrast, COVID-assertive districts returned to in-person learning earlier and removed safety measures faster.

鈥淭hese categorizations are not meant to imply that districts either threw caution to the wind or were not interested in returning students to the classrooms,鈥� the report said. 鈥淚nstead, these categories describe which of the two goals the districts prioritized when pressed.鈥�

According to the report, 90% of COVID-cautious districts and 70% of COVID-assertive districts experienced enrollment declines in the past two school years.

COVID-cautious districts experienced an enrollment decline of 4.4% and COVID-assertive districts experienced 1.2%. This is a disparity of one in 23 students compared to one in 87 students.

2. Student enrollment rebounded in Trump-elected counties while enrollment continued to decline in Biden-elected counties.

The 2020 presidential election impacted student enrollment, where schools in Trump-elected counties offered a significant amount of in-person class time compared to Biden-elected counties, according to the report.

The report also found Trump-elected counties saw enrollments rebound in the 2021-22 school year, suggesting voting patterns influenced COVID-cautious and COVID-assertive decisions.

鈥淐ertainly Donald Trump’s tweets about 鈥榟ey, all students have to go back to school and don’t let the Democrats keep them out of school鈥� is something that is going to polarize people politically,鈥� Malkus told 社区黑料. 鈥淗owever, the response to Trump was just as adept when politicians on both sides took stands on the matter.鈥�

3. Public school districts may experience revenue declines based on student enrollment.

COVID-cautious districts may experience a larger revenue decline compared to COVID-assertive districts as a result of in-person class time disparities.

鈥淗ow do these districts maintain services under sharp decreases in enrollment? They鈥檙e going to have lower revenue and that鈥檚 going to be painful for school districts, and by extension, for students,鈥� Malkus said. 

This includes potential hiring freezes, school closures, cuts to programs, teacher and staff layoffs and classroom consolidations, according to the report.

鈥淐OVID-cautious tendencies could extend the enrollment differentials for longer, but we won’t know the answer to that until we get another round of enrollment data so I hesitate to predict the future,鈥� Malkus said of the 2022-23 school year.

However, Malkus found COVID-cautious districts have been following their COVID-assertive counterparts for the 2022-23 school year when it comes to mask mandates, vaccine requirements and other safety measures.

鈥淚t does seem to some degree that the COVID-cautious districts are giving way to normalcy, but we’ll see if that lasts in the face of potential endemic surges to come,鈥� Malkus said.

鈥淭hey wanted more evidence that she had gone,鈥� said the trans student鈥檚 father, Jeff Walker. 鈥淚 said, 鈥業鈥檒l send you media, pictures, an invitation from the White House.鈥� They still did not excuse the absence.鈥�

The episode would certainly be in keeping with the spirit of laws signed by Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, a Republican, that restrict trans students鈥� lives in and out of school. , similar to legislation in Texas and Arkansas, targets doctors who provide trans health services, like the prescription of puberty blockers, to minors. keeps trans students out of bathrooms and locker room facilities that match their gender identity. Like Florida鈥檚 so-called 鈥渄on鈥檛 say gay鈥� legislation, it also prohibits discussions of sexual orientation and gender identity in the elementary grades.

Such legislation might soon be on a collision course with federal law, as the U.S. Department of Education puts the finishing touches on a long-awaited rewrite of Title IX. That update is widely expected to codify the rights of trans students for the first time. Department officials have already said that Title IX, which prohibits sex discrimination and harassment in programs receiving federal funds, will echo the in Bostock v. Clayton County, Georgia, which extended protections against sexual harassment and discrimination in the workplace to LGBTQ employees.

A department spokesperson said Tuesday that it expects to release the new rule in May. 

Alabama is among 15 Republican-led states it. In the last year, a dozen states have passed bills prohibiting trans females from competing in girls鈥� and women鈥檚 sports. But the wave of legislation targeting LGBTQ students has since spread to encompass 鈥渏ust about every moment of their daily lives,鈥� Sam Ames, director of advocacy and government affairs for the nonprofit Trevor Project, said earlier this month during a .

Experts expect the rule to put school districts in the center of what will likely be a long legal battle.

Max Eden, a research fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, called it 鈥渁 very unenviable place.鈥�

鈥淚t sets up a big showdown between states and the federal government,鈥� he said during a , 鈥渁nd schools will be caught in between the two forces.鈥� 

Parents Defending Education, a nonprofit leading the campaign against what it calls districts鈥� 鈥渋ndoctrination鈥� of students on issues of race and gender, organized the event to inform parents about the upcoming rule. Eden also warned of an unpleasant tug-of-war between schools that teach gender as a 鈥渇luid construct鈥� and parents who oppose references to gender identity in the classroom.

鈥淚t gets to a fundamental question of what is a human being,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f a school says one thing and Mommy and Daddy say another thing, a kid has to pick, and that’s not a fun place to put an 8-year-old.鈥� 

The public is clearly divided over such policies. A from the University of Chicago and the AP-NORC Center showed that allowing trans students to use bathrooms that align with their gender identity receives the most support from Democrats (52%) Hispanic adults (35%) and those with a college degree (45%). Nine percent of Republicans supported such policies. Forty-seven percent of those who voted in a recent school board election and follow news about their local board were opposed, compared to 35% who don鈥檛 follow such issues.

The tension is already on display in Oklahoma, where Attorney General John O鈥機onnor told the that it鈥檚 illegal to let a trans girl use the girls鈥� restroom, while state education officials say it鈥檚 a matter for the district to decide. 

For districts that could face similar directives in the future, 鈥渇ederal law always wins,鈥� said W. Scott Lewis, co-founder of the Association of Title IX Administrators. 鈥淭he writing is on the wall. This is a protected class.鈥� 

That might change if federal courts weigh in against the department. Two current federal cases involving trans athletes 鈥� one in and another in 鈥� could work their way to the U.S. Supreme Court. Despite Republicans鈥� questioning, newly confirmed Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson declined to comment on the issue during recent confirmation hearings.

While the education department鈥檚 interpretation of the Bostock ruling doesn鈥檛 mention sports, the Biden administration made its position known in filed last year in a West Virginia case. The plaintiff, a transgender girl who wants to compete with girls on her middle school cross country team, is challenging the state鈥檚 2021 law banning students born as male from participating in girls鈥� sports. 

鈥淎lthough the regulations allow recipients to operate or sponsor separate teams based on sex, the regulations do not define 鈥榮ex鈥� or address how students who are transgender should be assigned to such teams,鈥� the brief said. 鈥淲hen assigning students to single-sex sports teams, a recipient must still comply with the statutory prohibition against discrimination based on sex in Title IX itself.鈥�

In a year marking Title IX鈥檚 50th anniversary, some experts say the administration鈥檚 position could undermine years of work toward achieving equity in women鈥檚 sports. 

鈥淚magine you go to a meet to watch an event called 鈥榯he Girls鈥� 100,鈥� which includes both males and females 鈥� some of whom identify as girls, some as boys, some as nonbinary. Specifically, what is it that makes the assembled individuals all 鈥榞irls鈥� so that having them compete in a separate event from the 鈥榖oys鈥� is defensible?鈥� asked Doriane Lambelet Coleman, a Duke University law professor and co-director of the Center for Sports Law and Policy.

Some of the males could be on testosterone suppression, while some of the females are taking testosterone, she explained, adding that 鈥渟uch a field would only rarely allow a female who is not taking testosterone to win in a category that was originally designed for her, to secure her equal access to the social goods that flow from competitive sport.鈥�

Lewis, with the Title IX administrators organization, predicted the issue will reach the court during its next term.

鈥淭hey can鈥檛 let it sit any longer,鈥� he said. 

The issue could also play out in Congress if Republicans regain control during upcoming midterm elections. But any legislation aimed at Title IX 鈥渨ill be entirely symbolic,鈥� because it would need 60 votes in the Senate to pass initially and President Joe Biden would veto it, said R. Shep Melnick, a political science professor at Boston College.

鈥淐ongress has rarely amended Title IX, and never on a major substantive issue,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he conflict will play out in the administrative and judicial arenas.鈥�  

鈥楤reaking a confidentiality鈥�

Even before Biden took office, he pledged to revise the Trump administration鈥檚 Title IX rule, which increased protections for those unfairly accused of sexual misconduct. Once in office, he ordered the department to begin the lengthy process of rescinding the rule and restoring elements of Obama-era guidance that directed schools and colleges to address sexual assault.鈥�

Those changes, already controversial, were quickly overshadowed by the administration鈥檚 efforts to incorporate the rights of LGBTQ students into Title IX. During a weeklong public hearing last year, the department invited comment from those experiencing discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity, further signaling that the rule 鈥� which will be put out for public comment upon its release 鈥� would address those issues.

It鈥檚 unclear whether the regulation will include detailed guidance about issues like preferred names and pronouns or sex-specific school uniforms, but advocates for trans students hope the department will supplement the rule with examples of how districts can address those issues. 

Schools should 鈥渕ake it clear what nondiscrimination looks like鈥� said Asaf Orr, senior staff attorney for the National Center for Lesbian Rights. 鈥淒ictating that teachers can’t discuss anything related to gender identity is fostering a school environment that is not welcoming to LGBTQ students.鈥�

Walker, who described his daughter Harleigh as 鈥�100% girl,鈥� is a plaintiff in challenging Alabama鈥檚 new Vulnerable Child Compassion and Protection Act, which criminalizes transgender health services for children. He鈥檚 also concerned that requiring Harleigh to use the boys鈥� restroom will 鈥渙pen her up to assault.鈥�

鈥淢y fear is some administrator at her school will try to make an example out of her,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey say this is going to protect my child. It鈥檚 not going to protect anyone.鈥�

While the Alabama provision, which only applies to K-5, doesn鈥檛 affect Magic City Acceptance Academy, a Birmingham-area charter school that serves many LGBTQ students, Principal Michael Wilson said he鈥檚 concerned about a requirement for school officials to inform parents if students question their gender identity.听

鈥淵ou鈥檙e breaking a confidentiality, a relationship that you have formed with kids,鈥� he said, noting recent data showing increases in LGBTQ students seriously considering or attempting suicide.

The education department鈥檚 webinar highlighted what some schools are already doing to support trans students.

Sam Long, a trans biology teacher at Denver South High School in Colorado, talked about working with two other LGBTQ educators to 鈥渃lean up鈥� teaching materials on reproduction. 

鈥淲e can be more accurate and be more inclusive,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 ovaries that produce eggs. We鈥檙e acknowledging that not all women produce eggs, and also not all egg producers are women.鈥�

Rebekah Bruesehoff, a trans student and activist from New Jersey, said she鈥檚 always 鈥渓ooking for clues鈥� throughout her school 鈥� like preferred pronouns on a teacher鈥檚 ID badge 鈥� to see which educators are more accepting.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 just walk into class at the beginning of the year and announce that I鈥檓 transgender,鈥� said the ninth grader, who described herself as a 鈥渢otal nerd鈥� who loves school, plays field hockey and participates in musical theater. 鈥淚t鈥檚 one tiny part of who I am, but there’s so much more to me.鈥�

The $1.75 trillion Build Back Better plan, which the House passed in November, has been stalled in the Senate largely due to opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin, a moderate West Virginia Democrat, to some proposals, including extending a beefed-up version of the credit. The monthly payments, up to $300 per month for young children, ended in December. shows most families have used the money for rent, groceries and school-related expenses.

鈥淭he expanded [Child Tax Credit] is a signature domestic policy achievement of this administration, and has been an overwhelming success,鈥� Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Rev. Ralph Warnock of Georgia and Ron Wyden of Oregon wrote in . 鈥淎fter historic progress, it is unacceptable to return to a status quo in which children are America鈥檚 poorest residents and child poverty costs our nation more than $1 trillion per year.鈥�

The senators鈥� letter comes a week after Biden cast doubt on his ability to reach a deal with Manchin that includes the expanded credit. In a Jan. 19 press conference, he said he cares 鈥渁 great deal鈥� about the credit and said he would keep trying to get it passed. The senators also highlighted showing such policies can have positive impacts on babies鈥� brain development. With the Senate soon expected to return to over Build Back Better, the question is whether the study could influence Manchin鈥檚 position.

Supporters of cash support for low-income families are 鈥渜uite enthusiastic鈥� about the findings, said Greg Duncan, an education professor at the University of California, Irvine, and a lead researcher on the $17 million project. He鈥檚 working with advocacy groups in West Virginia to schedule a briefing for Manchin, and added that the researchers have 鈥渢ried to connect with all sorts of people on the political spectrum.鈥�

The first U.S. evaluation of a 鈥渄irect poverty reduction鈥� focused on early childhood, according to the press release, the study randomly assigned 1,000 low-income, mostly Black and Hispanic mothers in four cities to receive debit cards with monthly payments of either $333 or a nominal $20. After one year, infants in households that received the assistance were more likely than those in the control group to show brain activity associated with thinking and learning.

The researchers suggest that the cash support can reduce stress on mothers and in turn improve home environments for young children. The study began before the pandemic, but by researchers at the University of Oregon have shown that lockdowns, family isolation and financial stress related to COVID-19 have led to greater anxiety among parents and irritability among children.

While researchers can鈥檛 predict if children in the families receiving the payments will continue to have an advantage, they didn鈥檛 expect to see such quick results.

鈥淚t surprised most of us that after only one year of [cash] transfers that this would actually show up as clearly as it did in the data,鈥� Duncan said. 鈥淲e always take the long view and thought it would take several years before the stress levels would be reduced.鈥�

A second paper focusing on whether mothers spent the money on drugs or alcohol is expected this spring, followed by a third looking at whether the financial support is associated with mothers pulling out of the workforce. Critics, including Manchin, argue such programs should have a work requirement.

Duncan said that the findings add to a body of evidence that suggests 鈥渋ncome has a causal effect on child well-being, particularly in early childhood and when poverty is quite persistent.鈥�

Katharine Stevens, founder and CEO of the Center on Child and Family Policy, called the study an 鈥渦nusually rigorous attempt to begin identifying the most effective, policy-relevant drivers of child well-being.鈥� But she rejected the suggestion that the money was a direct cause of the brain growth in children.听

Babies 鈥渄o not eat, breathe or interact with money,鈥� she said, adding that more research is needed to determine the 鈥渕echanisms that matter most鈥� in young children鈥檚 development. 

When Education Secretary Miguel Cardona toured South Bend, Indiana鈥檚 Madison STEAM Academy in September, he made a quick impression on the district鈥檚 superintendent, C. Todd Cummings. 

Cummings remembers the secretary鈥檚 interest in COVID protocols, the facility鈥檚 STEM makerspace, and that he spoke Spanish to students at the bilingual school. By the time the visit ended, he came away feeling like he could pick up the phone and call Cardona if needed. 

鈥淗e鈥檚 done a lot to make the department more approachable,鈥� Cummings said. 鈥淗e understands running a district, but he also understands teachers in the classroom.鈥�

Having one of their own helming the U.S. Department of Education has gone a long way toward mending the fractured relationship between district leaders and the agency that existed under Cardona鈥檚 predecessor. Betsy DeVos was the consummate outsider. She warred with unions, made comments that many teachers found , and attempted to direct relief funds meant for the public system to private schools. In contrast, when the former Connecticut state chief meets with superintendents and school leaders, 鈥渉e鈥檚 talking shop鈥� on everything from bell schedules to graduation rates, said Ronn Nozoe, head of the National Association of Secondary School Principals.

But almost a year into Cardona鈥檚 tenure, and with the pandemic showing no signs of abating, his department has sometimes struggled to keep up. COVID-19 has thrust the agency into the public eye almost as much as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and, like the CDC, it has often come under fire for being slow to respond to a fast-changing virus. To some, Cardona鈥檚 camaraderie with educators helps explain why he has sometimes appeared reluctant to embrace another constituency, whose power and visibility has grown with the pandemic: parents. 

Sarah Carpenter, executive director of The Memphis Lift, a nonprofit that trains parents to advocate for their children鈥檚 educational needs, said she hasn鈥檛 forgotten that parent leaders weren鈥檛 asked to speak at Cardona鈥檚 first virtual summit on reopening almost a year ago. 

鈥淭hey know we鈥檙e here, and we鈥檙e just not accounted for,鈥� she said, adding that parents 鈥渋n those communities where this pandemic hit the hardest鈥� should have had a voice. A June event focusing on equity didn鈥檛 feature parents either.

Cardona hasn鈥檛 ignored parents, and often reminds the public that his two teenage children, still attending public school in Meriden, Connecticut, have endured their own disruptions in learning. His first act as secretary was to write to parents and students acknowledging the hardships caused by the pandemic, and he has urged schools to rebuild trust with families.

More recently, when schools began to shift to remote learning because of the Omicron variant, Cardona told 社区黑料, 鈥淥ur parents have done enough.鈥� That same week, the announcement of another round of grants to state came with Cardona鈥檚 statement that, 鈥淢eaningful parent engagement 鈥� has never been more important.鈥�

But observers say his messages tend to emphasize over student recovery. When the department last month to use federal relief funds for teacher pay raises and hiring bonuses, Marguerite Roza, director of Georgetown University鈥檚 Edunomics Lab, said 鈥渢he balance feels a little off.鈥�

The pandemic has mobilized many parents to take a more central role in their children鈥檚 education, and their frustration over extended school closures likely tipped the Virginia governor鈥檚 race in favor of Republican Glenn Youngkin. 

Keri Rodrigues, president of the National Parents Union, has tried to drive that point home. She regularly participates in 鈥渟takeholder鈥� meetings with the department, and shares monthly parent survey data with Christian Rhodes, chief of staff for the department鈥檚 Office of Elementary and Secondary Education. But she described the department鈥檚 parent engagement efforts as a 鈥渂ox-checking exercise.鈥�

鈥淭hat鈥檚 not what this moment calls for. It calls for listening to people’s pain,鈥� she said. 鈥淧arents expect to be engaged on a whole new level because we had to hold it down for [schools] while they weren鈥檛 there.鈥�

鈥楴ot a slow-moving moment鈥�

Leaders in education said Cardona has shown skill in managing the mountain of challenges he faced when he entered the job: more than half of schools still not fully open, expectations that he quickly reverse the previous administration鈥檚 stance on students鈥� civil rights, and low morale among what Nozoe called the department鈥檚 鈥渂eat-down career staff.鈥� Cardona, he added, is trying to rebuild an agency that DeVos shouldn鈥檛 even exist.

Cardona said his top priority has been helping schools reopen and stay that way. Others credit him with steering billions in federal aid to states and districts on a short timeline.

鈥淭hey’ve made a huge amount of progress in a very, very difficult time,鈥� said Linda Darling-Hammond, president of the California State Board of Education and president and CEO of the Learning Policy Institute, a think tank. She led President Joe Biden鈥檚 transition team for education and as the nominee.

She specifically noted his team鈥檚 work to get the American Rescue Plan funding for schools 鈥渙ut the door with guidance and support for how to spend it鈥� and early efforts to make the CDC鈥檚 鈥渨onky and mysterious鈥� school reopening guidelines more accessible to educators. Recent confusion over whether the agency鈥檚 updated quarantine guidance applied to schools, however, drew fresh .

Some noted that communication from the department often hasn鈥檛 matched the urgency state and district leaders have experienced during the pandemic. 

In November, the department said it was OK to use relief funds to pay for alternate forms of for students in the face of a bus driver shortage. But that was a month after New York , a Democrat, asked for the guidance, and two months after Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker called in the to drive students to school. 

In mid-December, the department issued a on jumpstarting school accountability systems, but state officials started calling for that in September. 

鈥淭hey are slow moving,鈥� said Roza, 鈥渁nd it鈥檚 not a slow-moving moment in public education.鈥�

In an interview with 社区黑料, Cardona said the department responds with guidance when 鈥渨e hear from the field.鈥� He noted the staff鈥檚 efforts to host multiple webinars and respond to questions from educators, but acknowledged that guidance from the department has sometimes lagged. He vowed to do better. 鈥淲e have to stay ahead of things, and we鈥檙e going to continue to improve communications.鈥�

鈥楳ore influence鈥�

As he nears his first year as a cabinet member, Cardona reflected on what the department has accomplished under his leadership. 

While Omicron has led to short-term closures of as many as 5,400 schools, according to a frequently updated , Cardona noted that in-person learning had hit of schools by early December. And he takes pride that the department is addressing problems with Public Service Loan Forgiveness 鈥� a federal program meant to encourage students to go into nonprofit and public sector jobs, like teaching, in exchange for debt relief. Under DeVos, the department denied most requests for relief, and borrowers complained that loan servicers gave on how to meet the program鈥檚 strict criteria. The department鈥檚 management of the program prompted the American Federation of Teachers . Since Cardona started, the department has wiped out roughly $12.7 billion in college debt, including almost $2 billion for the public service program.

鈥淣ot only are we providing some loan forgiveness, but we’re fixing the systems that led to the problems that we have now,鈥� he said, adding that he wants to continue to 鈥渕ake higher education more accessible to more students without having to be tethered in debt for the rest of their lives.鈥�

Before Cardona was confirmed, there was speculation he鈥檇 be overshadowed by Biden鈥檚 White House advisers, who included two former high-level education officials from the Obama administration. More recently, Rodrigues quipped that , president of the National Education Association, likely has more pull with the administration than Cardona.

Conservative pundits have sized him up as Rick Hess, director of Education Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, described him as 鈥渦nder-the-radar, except when he鈥檚 been waving the flag for partisan administration objectives.鈥�

But those who support those objectives say Cardona has clout with the president. 

鈥淚 think with every passing day, he has more and more influence with the White House,鈥� said American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten, who first met Cardona when he was a teacher and now has a friendly competition with him over who has visited more states and schools over the past year. By late December, she鈥檇 hit 28 states; he鈥檇 made it to 25.

She said he advocated with the White House for changes to the loan forgiveness program and for putting teachers second in line to receive the first wave of COVID-19 vaccines, after health care workers.

Interestingly, given the coziness many of his critics assume Cardona enjoys with the unions, he has had trouble with the one representing employees in his own department. 

鈥楾he huge political divide鈥�

In early December, the Federal Labor Relations Authority found the department guilty of 14 violations of labor law 鈥� actions that date back to 2018 when the employee union鈥檚 collective bargaining rights. A of federal employees showed that morale within the department had declined far more than in any other agency. Those grievances have continued under Cardona, according to Cathie McQuiston, deputy general counsel with the American Federation of Government Employees.

The complaints involve inconsistent policies for working remotely, employee evaluation procedures and denying staff union representation when they have a dispute.

Under DeVos, the department was 鈥減araded out as an example to other agencies of the kinds of things they should be doing in the Trump administration,鈥� McQuiston said. 鈥淭here has to be a political will to come in and say, 鈥榃e鈥檙e not doing that anymore.鈥� At education, we struggle to get that commitment.鈥�

According to a department spokesperson, efforts to resolve the complaints are ongoing and the agency is 鈥渃ommitted to making sure it is a great place to work.鈥� Both sides are scheduled to meet Thursday.

While addressing internal issues, Cardona was hit with a summer storm of public controversy over mask mandates and school equity initiatives. Superintendents were targeted with death threats, brawls broke out at school board meetings and school leaders tried to make sense of contradictory court rulings and mandates over masks.

鈥淚 wonder whether he anticipated the huge political divide over masks or no masks,鈥� said Deborah Delisle, who served as assistant secretary of elementary and secondary education in the Obama administration and is now president and CEO of ALL4Ed, a nonprofit education policy organization. 

In August, Cardona departed from his usual cordial tone to take a against states banning local districts from mandating masks. 

鈥淒on鈥檛 be the reason why schools are interrupted,鈥� he said at a , indirectly challenging the governors of Florida and Texas.

But unless Republicans pressed him during Congressional hearings, he avoided the fray over critical race theory 鈥� a legal argument that racism lies at the core of U.S. institutions to intentionally advantage white people 鈥� and even to the controversial 1619 Project and the work of author Ibram X. Kendi from a civics grant program.

鈥淲e don鈥檛 get involved in curriculum issues,鈥� he said during a June budget hearing, but stressed his support for culturally relevant teaching. 鈥淲hen students see themselves in the curriculum, they are more likely to be engaged.鈥�

Some observers suggest he could have done more. 

Hess, at the American Enterprise Institute, said Cardona could 鈥減erhaps carve out room for the serious center鈥� by defending 鈥渁 progressive vision鈥� but denouncing some of the examples that critics have found so , such as asking students to label themselves as 鈥渙ppressed鈥� or 鈥渙ppressor.鈥�

But Julia Martin, legislative director at Brustein and Manasevit, a law firm specializing in education, said there was no political upside for Cardona to wade any deeper into those waters.

鈥淭hese issues, by their nature, are local issues,鈥� she said. 鈥淭here’s no way in many of these instances to come out and make a principled statement that doesn鈥檛 bother some people.鈥�

The typically controversy-averse Cardona is a departure from the activist chiefs who have occupied the department since the No Child Left Behind era. Unlike many of his predecessors, Cardona doesn鈥檛 have a presidential mandate to implement bold reforms. 

鈥淲e’re still in a crisis, versus coming out of a crisis back in 2009,鈥� said John Bailey, a senior fellow at AEI. That鈥檚 when Arne Duncan became secretary under President Obama, with a far-reaching mission to incentivize states to embrace controversial reforms such as overhauling teacher evaluations and adopting Common Core standards.

Even if Cardona had such a mandate, Bailey said, the pandemic leaves him in the position of trying to provide a 鈥渞apid response during an unfolding crisis that continues to play out.鈥�

If the pandemic doesn鈥檛 continue to steal most of Cardona鈥檚 focus, he said he hopes to shift attention in 2022 toward issues a little closer to his heart: 鈥渢eaching and learning.鈥�

As someone who attended a technical high school in his hometown of Meriden, Cardona wants to see 鈥渂etter pathways鈥� for students to two- and four-year schools and the workforce, especially with the jobs that will be created as a result of the $1.2 trillion federal infrastructure bill passed in November.

鈥淭here’s funding 鈥� unlike we’ve seen in the 20 years that I’ve been in education,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e have an opportunity here to really lift our field 鈥� and to give our students opportunities that they’ve never had.鈥�

Lead Image: Education Secretary Miguel Cardona testified during a Sept. 30 Senate education committee hearing on school reopening. (Greg Nash / Getty Images)

Calling it a “significant encroachment,” the Supreme Court on Thursday that would have impacted about a quarter of the nation’s school districts and potentially contributed to further staff shortages.

“Permitting [the聽Occupational Safety and Health Administration]聽to regulate the hazards of daily life 鈥� simply because most Americans have jobs and face those same risks while on the clock 鈥� would significantly expand OSHA鈥檚 regulatory authority without clear congressional authorization,” the opinion聽said.

The court’s three left-leaning justices, Stephen聽Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and聽Elena Kagan, dissented, arguing that the decision “stymies the federal government鈥檚 ability to counter the unparalleled threat that COVID鈥�19 poses to our nation鈥檚 workers.”

As schools struggle to handle COVID-19 outbreaks amid staff shortages, the U.S. Supreme Court Friday heard a lawsuit over an employee vaccine mandate that some experts suggest could stretch districts even thinner.

In November, President Joe Biden that employees in organizations with at least 100 workers be vaccinated or wear a mask and test weekly. The requirement applies to about of the nation鈥檚 public school teachers and staff members, after factoring in the several states that have already imposed their own vaccine requirements for district employees.

The plaintiffs, 27 states and the National Federation of Independent Businesses, sued the U.S. Department of Labor and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, arguing that the mandate 鈥� set to go into effect Monday 鈥� would create a 鈥渓abor upheaval鈥� and that many employees will quit rather than comply. The plaintiffs asked the court to block the mandate from being implemented, and a ruling on that could come as early as this weekend.

鈥淭his is going to cause a massive economic shift in this country,鈥� said Scott Keller, representing the businesses. He and Ohio Solicitor General Ben Flowers argued that states and Congress 鈥� not OSHA 鈥� have the authority over public health regulations and that COVID-19 transmission is a risk everywhere, not just in the workplace.

Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, speaking for the Biden administration, stressed that 鈥済rave danger exists鈥� when people gather indoors together, which they are more likely to do at work.

The hearing took place as other challenges to vaccine mandates 鈥� for both educators and students 鈥� move through the legal system. The San Diego Union School District鈥檚 vaccine mandate is facing two challenges, one of which also awaits a response from the Supreme Court. And a federal judge in Louisiana last week blocked the Biden administration鈥檚 requirement that all Head Start staff be vaccinated by the end of January. 

Even the judge in that case expects the administration to appeal.

鈥淭his issue will certainly be decided by a higher court than this one,鈥� Judge Terry Doughty, of the Western District of Louisiana, wrote in his ruling. A Trump appointee, he argued that the Biden administration has overstepped its authority and the mandate could make it difficult to keep classrooms fully staffed.

鈥淚f the executive branch is allowed to usurp the power of the legislative branch to make laws, then this country is no longer a democracy 鈥� it is a monarchy,鈥� he wrote.

鈥楾housands of people dying鈥�

In Friday鈥檚 oral arguments on the OSHA case, members of the Supreme Court鈥檚 conservative majority also questioned the the legality of the agency鈥檚 mandate.

鈥淭his is something that the federal government has never done before,鈥� said Chief Justice John Roberts.

But the more liberal justices focused on case and hospitalization rates.

鈥淏y this point, we know that the best way to prevent spread is for people to get vaccinated,鈥� said Justice Elena Kagan. 鈥淲e are still confronting thousands of people dying every time we look around.鈥�
On Wednesday, there were more than 700,000 new cases in the U.S. and more than 1,500 deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention The , however, has declined since the Delta surge in September.

According to Nat Malkus, an education policy expert at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, the mandate would directly apply to districts in 26 states that have their own OSHA plans. But even in those states that are exempt, it could 鈥渃hange the calculus for districts鈥� and make them more likely to require vaccines or regular testing if most other employers in their communities are already enforcing the mandate. In the 24 states directly under OSHA authority, state and local employers are not included.

He noted that if the court opens the door to OSHA having broad authority in this case, it will be 鈥渉arder to close it in the future,鈥� and would strengthen the government鈥檚 argument in the Head Start case. 

While some children turn 5 while in Head Start, most in the federal preschool program for children in poverty, are still too young to be vaccinated. Children are less likely to become seriously ill from COVID-19. But with Omicron leading to higher positivity rates and recent in pediatric COVID-related hospitalizations, medical experts have stressed the importance of surrounding young children with family members and caregivers who are vaccinated.

The National Head Start Association, which represents Head Start families and programs, is calling for a compromise between the administration鈥檚 hard-line position and the 24 states that sued over the mandate. The rule also requires children ages 2 and up to wear masks.

鈥淔ace masks and vaccinations play a critical role in reducing the spread of COVID-19 in early care and educational settings. But the rule wants it all one way and the lawsuit wants it all the other way,鈥� Yasmina Vinci, executive director of the association, said in a statement. 鈥淗ead Start leaders are seeking the middle ground, where local programs have the flexibility to work within local guidelines to keep classrooms open and ensure children don鈥檛 lose access to crucial services because of a mandate that is impossible to operationalize.鈥�

鈥楾he uphill effort鈥�

But district leaders are concerned about the immediate impact of vaccine mandates on the classroom. 

鈥淚t will make shortages worse and exacerbate the uphill effort to get and keep schools open and kids in schools,鈥� Noelle Ellerson Ng, associate executive director for advocacy and governance at AASA, the School Superintendents Association, said about the OSHA rule.

As they monitor court rulings regarding vaccine mandates for employees, school districts are also watching decisions regarding students.  

The Supreme Court is expected to decide before Jan. 24 whether to hear the case of a pro-life student from Scripps Ranch High School in the San Diego district who objects to human cell lines being used in the testing and creation of the COVID-19 vaccines. Cell lines, developed in laboratories and commonly used to manufacture vaccines, come from fetuses aborted decades ago. 

The mandate applies to students 16 and up. Students who don鈥檛 comply would be enrolled in remote learning.

鈥淭he irony about the mandate is that teachers are allowed to get religious exemptions, but students, who are at far lower risk [from COVID-19], are not,鈥� said attorney Paul Jonna, who represents the plaintiffs.

In a separate San Diego case, the district plans to appeal a superior court judge鈥檚 decision . Let Them Choose, an advocacy organization, argues that only the state legislature or public health department 鈥� not districts 鈥� have the authority to mandate childhood vaccinations. The law also allows parents and students to opt out for personal beliefs. 

Two advocacy organizations made the same argument over the Los Angeles Unified School District鈥檚 vaccine mandate for students, which has been delayed until fall. In December, a Los Angeles Superior Court judge to block implementation of the mandate.

Under the protocol 鈥� which many states and districts have had in place for months 鈥� unvaccinated students who are exposed to COVID-19 can remain in school if all students wear masks, don鈥檛 display any symptoms and test twice a week. 

Data suggests 鈥渢hat a school-based [test-to-stay] strategy in a large and diverse county did not increase school transmission risk and might greatly reduce loss of in-person school days,鈥� according to an evaluation of a program in Los Angeles County, one of two studies released with the CDC鈥檚 statement. 鈥淭hus, schools might consider [test-to-stay] as an option for keeping quarantined students in school to continue in-person learning.鈥�

With schools breaking for the holidays and rising concerns about the spread of the Omicron variant, observers said the announcement 鈥� now part of the CDC鈥檚 for schools 鈥� comes just in time. John Bailey, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who publishes a daily newsletter on COVID-related research, called it 鈥渨elcomed news鈥� that helps schools prepare for the potential Omicron wave in January. But the agency also urged all eligible students to be vaccinated and get a booster shot, and said schools shouldn鈥檛 abandon other safety procedures, including social distancing, improving ventilation and handwashing. 

鈥淚t鈥檚 encouraging that test-to-stay strategies are proving effective both in limiting transmission of the virus and in ensuring that students can remain learning in school, so that entire classrooms or schools do not have to shut down when a case of COVID-19 is discovered in the school community,鈥� Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said in a statement.

It鈥檚 unclear, however, how many students those shutdowns have affected. Bailey faulted the Department of Education for not issuing weekly reports on how many students are in quarantine and whether they鈥檙e receiving instruction.

鈥淲e should not be relying on third parties for that data,鈥� he said. 鈥淎n agency that is using civil rights authorities to enforce mask mandates should be curious about the civil rights of kids who are not being served in the midst of quarantines.”

The CDC鈥檚 two studies show that test-to-stay is significantly minimizing disruptions in learning.

Thirty-nine of Los Angeles County鈥檚 78 school districts implemented test-to-stay. In those that didn鈥檛 follow the model, 4,322 students tested positive between Sept. 20 and the end of October, compared to 812 students in the districts that implemented the program.

In Lake County, Illinois, 90 schools implemented test-to-stay between early August and Oct. 29. Just 16 students out of a total 65,384 tested positive. The authors wrote that assuming students would have missed eight school days during a 10-day quarantine, the program 鈥減reserved up to 8,152 in-person learning days鈥� for students that were exposed.

Leah Perkinson, a manager at the Rockefeller Foundation, which has worked with districts to implement testing, called this 鈥渙ne of the happiest days for me throughout this whole entire pandemic鈥� and said the announcement will likely prompt more districts to adopt the strategy. 鈥淪ome people are only willing to move forward when the CDC releases guidance.鈥�

The data, she added, could also inspire other settings, such as child care centers and camps, to see if they can implement test-to-stay.

One challenge, however, is that some rapid COVID tests are not picking up Omicron, according to , director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Disease. 

The two studies also noted complications that limit districts鈥� ability to implement the model, such as staffing shortages, the need for 鈥渞obust contact identification and tracing鈥� and a lack of support from parents. 

鈥淪ome schools reported a shortage of testing supplies, requiring [test-to-stay] participants to access off-site testing, which might have presented a barrier in low-resource school settings,鈥� according to the second evaluation on Lake County, Illinois. 鈥淪tate and local public health and education agencies should strive to ensure that schools in low-resource areas have equitable access to staffing and testing supplies to implement [test-to-stay].鈥�

But if the family wants to move their child to better schools in the nearby Elwood, Union or Manhattan districts they would be hard-pressed to find housing in that price range.听

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These invisible boundaries are what researchers at Bellwether Education Partners call 鈥渂order barriers鈥� 鈥� lines between districts that frequently keep low-income families out of higher-quality schools. The Chicago area, the authors write, has 45 such divisions, where families in low-income housing brush up against districts with more resources and better schools but few, if any, affordable rental units.听

Bellwether explores these differences in 鈥淧riced Out of Public Schools,鈥� released last week that adds a new layer to our understanding of how closely housing and education are intertwined. Districts with out-of-reach rental prices spend, on average, at least $4,600 more per student 鈥� the result of higher property taxes. While states鈥� school finance formulas aim to equalize funding across districts, they don鈥檛 make up the gap.听

鈥淎s we think about what we need to do moving forward, it鈥檚 not just an education solution alone,鈥� said Alex Spurrier, co-author of the report and a senior analyst at Bellwether Education Partners, an education think tank. States, he said, should consider multiple policy levers to address 鈥渨hat is a very thorny challenge.鈥�

The report comes as continue to rise and many low-income families , long delays for federal rental assistance funds and landlords who reject . When families relocate to more affordable housing, their children often must leave not only their schools, but their districts as well 鈥� especially in states like Texas, California and Illinois, where metro area maps are dotted with dozens of small school districts. The authors label the phenomenon 鈥渆ducational gerrymandering,鈥� the creation of smaller, exclusive districts that cater to higher-income, less racially diverse student populations. While the report recommends multiple approaches to address the disparities, experts note that altering district boundaries is politically risky: People with money are likely to vote against those who meddle too much.

鈥淧eople who have wealth are willing to use it to get high-quality schools.鈥� said Nat Malkus, a senior fellow and the deputy director of education policy at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. 鈥淭he rules of the game do produce some inequities.鈥澛�

Mergers and secessions

Some of those rules date back to nearly a century ago when the nation entered a movement that by 1970 had cut more than 100,000 districts down to less than 20,000. Now there are 13,000.

But district mergers tended to lack high-minded ambitions to create more racial or socioeconomically balanced schools. Rather, they were likely to be unions of districts with similar demographics, explained Tomas Monarrez, a research associate at the Urban Institute who has studied racial and ethnic segregation in schools.

Some of the starkest examples of drawing boundaries to benefit wealthier populations include recent efforts by some communities to break away from larger, often county-level, school districts. the 2017 report from EdBuild, noted 73 secessions since 2000, with another 55 either attempted or in progress.

Several have launched in the Northeast, but the Bellwether report also includes examples in the South. In Memphis, Tennessee, for example, communities within Shelby County split off into smaller districts in 2014 after the majority Black Memphis district dissolved and merged into the county district. In Alabama, there have been 10 successful attempts since 2000, with in the works.听

鈥淎t the very least, we should be wary of those secession trends,鈥� Monarrez said. Mergers, however, can minimize disparities in access to quality schools if leaders pursue them with the goal of improving equity, he said.

Some states have created where multiple districts share tax revenue or allow students to transfer into schools across district lines as a way to reduce disparities. The Nebraska legislature created such a plan involving 11 Omaha-area districts. In Massachusetts, the Metropolitan Council for Educational Opportunity, encompassing Boston and the surrounding area, is another example.

But Malkus, at the American Enterprise Institute, cautioned that such options only tend to 鈥渘ibble around the margins.鈥� Daniel Thatcher, a senior fellow at the National Conference of State Legislatures, noted that open enrollment programs can make school funding disparities worse because the receiving district gets the state funding for those students.

School choice programs are another way to allow students to attend a school outside their neighborhood, the authors suggest. The results of that approach are mixed. that within a district, charters lead to a slight decrease in student diversity. But across a metro area, the presence of charters can create schools that are more racially mixed.

That鈥檚 what leaders in School District 49, adjacent to the Colorado Springs, Colorado, district have found. The district is considered 鈥渋naccessible鈥� to lower-income families because there鈥檚 not enough affordable housing to meet the demand, according to the Bellwether report. But more than a third of the district鈥檚 students come from outside the district for traditional, charter and online options, said Peter Hilts, the system鈥檚 chief education officer. Half of the Colorado Springs district鈥檚 students are nonwhite, compared to 43 percent in District 49.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no question that open, inclusive choice has made us a more diverse district,鈥� Hilts said. 鈥�If you genuinely want educational equity, you must believe in school choice, and if you truly advocate for inclusive choice, you must address other factors like transportation, affordable housing, and childcare options that can inhibit choice.鈥�

Housing affordability not only affects families wishing to move into a district, but also those who want to stay put. In Tacoma, Washington, low-income families are beginning to leave because of a lack of housing options, said Elliott Barnett, a senior planner for the city. Proximity to quality schools is a key element of , a project that recommends building additional types of housing in neighborhoods that were previously reserved for single-family homes.

鈥淲e know that where a person lives has a link to their access to opportunities that have a big impact on our lives such as education achievement, income, life expectancy and others.鈥� Barnett said. 鈥淓ven if kids can travel from elsewhere to a high-performing school outside their neighborhood, that is another burden to overcome.鈥澛�

Some states, like and , have recently passed legislation to increase the supply of affordable housing. While such efforts haven鈥檛 always taken school locations into account, Monarrez said that鈥檚 beginning to change. California governor Gavin Newsom mentioned the need for a wider array of housing options near schools as one goal of his state鈥檚 legislation.听

The next step, Monarrez said, is for policymakers to reconsider district boundaries as well.

鈥淲e need to find out more about what would happen if we changed these lines,鈥� he said. 鈥淎 viable solution is drawing better lines.鈥�

Disclosure: Andy Rotherham co-founded Bellwether Education Partners. He sits on 社区黑料鈥檚 board of directors.

The U.S. Senate passed the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill on Tuesday, with 19 Republicans joining 50 Democrats in approving the measure.听

“I want to thank a group of senators, Democrats and Republicans for doing what they told me they would do,” President Joe Biden聽said. “They said they’re willing to work in a bipartisan manner, and I want to thank them for keeping their word.

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the result of a long negotiating process with Republicans, addresses the “clear and present danger” of lead pipes carrying drinking water, reduces transportation costs and increases internet access, Biden said.

“During remote learning during the pandemic last year,” he said, “we saw too many families forced to literally sit in their vehicles in a fast food parking lot so their children can get on the internet they couldn’t afford and didn’t have access to at home.”

The bill 鈥� the first phase of Biden’s domestic agenda 鈥� now heads to the House, but Speaker Nancy Pelosi isn’t expected to introduce it until it’s clear that all Democrats will support the second, and larger, social spending package.

The U.S. Senate is expected to pass a bi-partisan $1.2 trillion on Tuesday that includes funding for electric school buses, eliminating lead pipes in schools and expanding the nation鈥檚 access to broadband.

Most of President Joe Biden鈥檚 agenda for education and families, however, is included in a separate $3.5 trillion Senate Democrats unveiled Monday, with plans to pass legislation over Republican opposition.

Progressive House members have been threatening for months that they won鈥檛 approve one without the other, setting up a potential drawn-out battle this fall if Democrats don鈥檛 get everything they want in the larger 鈥淎merican Family Plan.鈥� Republican leaders, meanwhile, have urged Democrats to separate the two packages to ensure that to fix roads and bridges and expand public transportation, among others, make it to the president鈥檚 desk. Thus far, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi the piecemeal approach, showing a determination to pass as much of the president鈥檚 agenda as possible within his first year in office.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe leadership would move one [bill] without being confident the other is locked down,鈥� said Julia Martin, legislative director of Brustein and Manasevit, a Washington-based education law firm.

The strategy, she said, is an effort to ensure the larger social spending bill 鈥� which includes universal pre-K, free community college and an extension of the Child Tax Credit 鈥� would pass despite reservations from moderates over the cost and objections from more liberal members that it doesn鈥檛 go far enough.

With Democrats in control of both houses in Congress, they can pursue a process known as reconciliation, which doesn鈥檛 require any Republican votes.

鈥淚f you鈥檙e doing a one-party bill anyway, there鈥檚 a lot of pressure to pass long-standing and more liberal priorities,鈥� Martin said.

Some Democrats, for example, want to see the larger Child Tax Credit, which families began receiving last month, . The one-year increase passed as part of the March relief bill, and Biden鈥檚 plan extends it through 2025. House and Senate Democrats are also pushing for , but Biden鈥檚 proposal doesn鈥檛 go that far. He鈥檚 calling for free school meals for all students in the , covering about 70 percent of students in the elementary grades.

The chance Democrats could lose more seats in Congress is another reason they鈥檙e pushing to pass both packages. With midterm elections next year, some experts expect Republicans to challenge the majority on issues such as .

Democrats 鈥渃ould very likely lose the House in 鈥�22, so this is the moment,鈥� said Danny Carlson, associate executive director for policy and advocacy at the National Association for Elementary School Principals.

The $3.5 trillion package includes $726 billion for the Senate education committee, which will write bills for pre-K, expanding access to child care, building and renovating schools, and addressing teacher shortages. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, in a letter Monday, asked the committees to submit their bills by Sept. 15.

He also urged Democrats to 鈥済o on the offense鈥� during the upcoming recess 鈥渢o explain how our budget will lower costs and cut taxes for American families.鈥�

But Republicans argue it will only increase the national debt. In , Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called the package 鈥渇ar-left radicalism鈥� and said on the floor Saturday that budget committee Chairman Bernie Sanders鈥檚 鈥渟ocialist shopping list will make every disagreement we鈥檝e had in landing the infrastructure compromise look like a rounding error.鈥�

Last week, the Congressional Budget Office released showing the infrastructure bill would increase the federal deficit by $256 billion over the next 10 years. That figure the bill, but is fueling objections to additional spending

McConnell specifically mentioned the administration鈥檚 child care proposal, calling it 鈥済overnment meddling … that would privilege certain families鈥� choices over others.鈥欌��

Biden鈥檚 plan seeks to lower the cost of child care, while still giving parents options, including centers and family child care providers. But some conservatives argue there鈥檚 still too much emphasis on group settings.

Katharine Stevens, a resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said while she understands that full-time child care is essential for working parents, 鈥渋t’s not optimal for the majority of children 鈥� even harmful for some 鈥� during the most crucial period of development.鈥�

The plan would increase pay for providers, which can allow centers to hire better-qualified teachers, but Stevens said ensuring all programs reach high quality is still 鈥渁 very big if.鈥�

When Congress returns in the fall, the Senate will also have to take up the fiscal year 2022 budget. The House has already passed seven appropriations bills, including nearly $103 billion for the Department of Education, a $29 billion increase over 2021.